Fact Check – Page 7 – Capitol Hill Blue

More Trump lies about hurricane damage, other issues

October 14, 2018October 14, 2018 by <a href="https://www.capitolhillblue.com/node/byline/hope-yen-and-seth-borenstein" rel="tag">HOPE YEN and SETH BORENSTEIN</a>

Hurricane damage at Mexico Beach, Florida. (AP Photos/Gerald Herbert)

Hurricane Michael has shown that President Donald Trump can’t always be counted on to give accurate information to the public when a natural disaster unfolds.

Trump wrongly stated that the hurricane moved across land with blazing speed, which stopped a terrible situation from becoming even worse because the storm didn’t linger. He also at least mildly exaggerated the ferocity of the storm’s winds.

His rhetorical record in times of calamity has been spotty.

Trump described last year’s Hurricane Maria as a Category 5 storm when it hit Puerto Rico; it was a 4. He invented a story that Democrats made up a high death toll on the island and, in the case of Hurricane Harvey and Texas, stated without evidence that thousands of water rescues resulted from people going “out in their boats to watch” the deadly storm.

The political winds swirled, too, over the past week, as Trump rallied hard for Republicans in the Nov. 6 elections that will determine control of Congress.

A look at some of his recent statements:

HURRICANE

TRUMP: “The only thing we can say about Michael with certainty is that it was so fast, it went through like a bullet, but it was a devastating bullet. It was complete.” — remarks Thursday at a meeting about human trafficking.

TRUMP: “The one good thing we can say, we were just discussing, is that it was the fastest hurricane anybody’s seen. It just was speedy. If it wasn’t, there’d be absolutely nothing left.” — remarks Thursday during signing of a bill to reduce sea pollution.

THE FACTS: No bullet here. Michael moved across land at a relatively normal pace.

Michael moved at 13 mph to 17 mph for most of Wednesday, then sped up to as high as 23 mph on Thursday. Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach notes that does not hold a candle to Hurricane Hazel in 1954. That one raced along at 55 mph.

Atmospheric scientist Brian McNoldy, from the University of Miami, said Michael’s forward movement was “perfectly average.”

“Very average forward speed,” agreed meteorologist Jeff Masters, founder of Weather Underground. In contrast, a 1961 tropical storm hurtled at 69.75 mph from the mid-Atlantic over the Northeast, and a 1938 hurricane hit Long Island while traveling over 50 mph, he said.

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TRUMP: “It was winds about as big as we’ve ever seen in history. We’ve never had anything like this.” — remarks Thursday at human-trafficking meeting.

TRUMP: “Some of those winds reached almost 200 miles an hour, which is unheard of. People are saying it’s the third most powerful that they’ve seen hit our country anywhere.” — remarks Thursday during bill signing.

TRUMP: “The level of power, people have not seen: the 170-, 180-mile-an-hour winds. At one point, it reached almost 200 miles an hour. So we haven’t seen that before. And I guess you have two or three cases where maybe there might have been slightly stronger wind. But this is in history.” — Fox News interview.

THE FACTS: This part is right: Michael was the third most powerful storm to hit the U.S. mainland. But Trump overstated wind speeds.

Michael’s top measured sustained winds were 155 mph and that’s from a plane, while the ground top wind speed measured was 129 mph. During the storm, a top wind gust of 130 mph was recorded at a University of Florida site before the instrument broke.

Gusts can be 25 percent higher than maximum sustained speeds, Klotzbach said, a prospect that would still leave winds considerably short of 200 mph on the ground.

Masters says the highest wind gust measured in a U.S. hurricane was 186 mph in Massachusetts in 1938.

Only four reliably recorded wind gusts of 200 mph or greater have been recorded in world history, he said. The world record wind gust is 253 mph at Barrow Island, Australia, during Tropical Cyclone Olivia in 1996.

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JUSTICE KAVANAUGH

TRUMP: “What happened to the Kavanaugh family violates every notion of fairness, decency, and due process. …I must state that you, sir, under historic scrutiny, were proven innocent.” — remarks Monday at swearing-in of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

THE FACTS: There’s no proof of innocence or of guilt. The presumption of innocence does not equate to proof.

It’s true that a supplemental FBI background check did not appear to substantiate sexual assault allegations made against Kavanaugh or show any “hint of misconduct,” according to Republican senators who read the confidential report. But that does not mean the review, which the FBI director described as limited in scope and lasting a week, proved Kavanaugh was innocent.

One of Kavanaugh’s accusers, Christine Blasey Ford, alleged that he sexually assaulted her when they were teens in the 1980s. Ford identified several people in the house where the alleged assault occurred; three did not refute her account but said in brief statements submitted to senators that they did not remember the gathering. That leaves open the possibility that people at the small gathering forgot about it or were not in position to witness the alleged assault.

Democrats have complained the supplemental FBI review was constrained by the White House and may not have conducted interviews with a number of vital witnesses. They have also argued that Kavanaugh’s nomination should be assessed broadly in terms of his fitness to be a Supreme Court justice, such as his truthfulness during the confirmation hearing and judicial temperament.

FBI Director Christopher Wray told Congress on Wednesday that the FBI’s additional review of Kavanaugh was limited but consistent with previous background checks of nominees. He said that unlike criminal or national security investigations, the FBI’s authority in background investigations is determined by the agency that requested it — the White House in this case.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has praised Kavanaugh’s confirmation as affirming the “presumption” of innocence.

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‘OPEN BORDERS BILL’

TRUMP: “Every single Democrat in the U.S. Senate has signed up for the open borders, and it’s a bill, it’s called the open borders bill. What’s going on? And it’s written by, guess who? Dianne Feinstein.” — Kansas rally on Oct. 6.

THE FACTS: It’s not called the “open borders” bill. More on point, nothing in the text directs borders to be more porous than now.

Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California is sponsoring a bill that has the support of every Democratic senator, but it’s called the “Keep Families Together Act.” The bill’s aim is to stop the Trump administration’s “zero tolerance” policy of criminally prosecuting all adults caught crossing the border illegally and putting their children under Department of Health and Human Services custody and care.

The bill seeks to limit family separations by barring federal agents and officers from removing a child from a parent within 100 miles of U.S. borders. Exceptions would apply in cases where a child is danger of trafficking or abuse or neglect, or when there is a strong likelihood the adult is not the parent.

While Trump charges that the bill would spur “open borders” and change immigration law, nothing in the legislation would prohibit the removal or detention of immigrants who arrive in the U.S. illegally if the families are kept together.

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CHICAGO CRIME

TRUMP: “I have directed the Attorney General’s office to immediately go to the great city of Chicago to help straighten out the terrible shooting wave. We want to straighten it out. We want to straighten it out fast. There’s no reason for what’s going on there.” — remarks Monday to police group in Orlando, Florida.

THE FACTS: In pointing to a “terrible shooting wave,” Trump suggests an intolerable crime situation in Chicago that requires strict measures, such as use of the controversial “stop and frisk” policing strategy. In fact, according to Chicago officials, the crime situation has been improving. Chicago police said this month that there have been 102 fewer homicides and nearly 500 fewer shooting victims in the city this year, compared with the first nine months of 2017.

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PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS

TRUMP: “As a candidate, I promised that we would protect coverage for patients with pre-existing conditions and create new health care insurance options that would lower premiums. I have kept that promise.” — op-ed column published Wednesday in USA Today.

TRUMP: “If you listen to my speeches, pre-existing conditions, I’m saying it’s being covered 100 percent and Republicans are doing that.” — Fox interview broadcast Wednesday.

THE FACTS: It’s a stretch for Trump to claim he is protecting health coverage for patients with pre-existing medical conditions, or that Republicans are “doing that.” His Justice Department is arguing in court that those protections in the Obama-era health law should fall. And the short-term health plans Trump often promotes as a bargain alternative offer no guarantee of covering pre-existing conditions.

Government lawyers said in legal filings in June that they will no longer defend key parts of the Affordable Care Acr, including provisions that guarantee access to health insurance regardless of any medical conditions. Attorney General Jeff Sessions wrote in a letter to Congress that Trump approved the legal strategy.

The decision was a rare departure from the Justice Department’s custom of defending federal laws in court, even if the administration in power does not like them. It came after Texas and other Republican-led states sued to strike down the entire law because Congress repealed a provision that people without health insurance must pay a fine.

The Trump administration said it won’t defend the provision shielding people with medical conditions from being denied coverage or charged higher premiums.

The health overhaul requires insurers to take all applicants, regardless of medical history, and patients with health problems pay the same standard premiums as healthy ones. Bills supported last year by Trump and congressional Republicans to repeal the law could have pushed up costs for people with pre-existing conditions.

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MEDICARE

TRUMP: “The Democrats’ plan means that after a life of hard work and sacrifice, seniors would no longer be able to depend on the benefits they were promised. By eliminating Medicare as a program for seniors, and outlawing the ability of Americans to enroll in private and employer-based plans, the Democratic plan would inevitably lead to the massive rationing of health care. Doctors and hospitals would be put out of business. Seniors would lose access to their favorite doctors. There would be long wait lines for appointments and procedures. Previously covered care would effectively be denied.” — op-ed column Wednesday in USA Today.

THE FACTS: He paints a speculative doomsday scenario that may capture some negative consequences of Democratic plans while ignoring the upside.

America’s health care system is a hybrid, with employers, federal, state, and local governments, and individuals sharing the cost. Under “Medicare for All,” the federal government would take the reins. Seniors are being promised more health care from the government, not less.

The plan by Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent, includes benefits not now covered by Medicare such as dental, vision, and hearing aids. A House bill would also cover long-term care.

The idea is also known as “single-payer,” because the government would pay nearly all the bills and set rates for hospitals and doctors — and for all patients, not just the elderly.

“Medicare for All” would also eliminate or reduce costs now directly paid by seniors themselves.

Retirees would no longer have to fork over premiums for supplemental private insurance to cover gaps in Medicare. There would be no deductibles. Copayments for most care would be eliminated. The same benefits would accrue to privately insured people. With almost no out-of-pocket costs, people would probably seek more health care services.

And there lies a potential problem.

Single-payer would also dial back what hospitals and doctors now get paid for their privately insured patients, to a level based on Medicare rates. Medicare generally pays less than private insurance. The combination of greater demand for services and new limits on reimbursement would put a squeeze on the health care system.

But would it “inevitably lead” to “massive rationing” as described by Trump?

Maybe. Academic experts critical of single-payer have been much more guarded, though.

“It is impossible to say precisely how much the confluence of these factors would reduce individuals’ timely access to health care services, but some such access problems almost certainly must arise,” wrote Charles Blahous of the libertarian Mercatus Center in a recent analysis that pointed out cost problems with Sanders’ plan.

Other experts and Sanders himself say that would not happen because single-payer would take costs out of the system by eliminating insurers as the middlemen and using government’s clout to bring down drug prices.

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Associated Press writers Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar and Cal Woodward contributed to this report.

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As usual, Trump turns to lies, misrepresentations

October 8, 2018October 8, 2018 by <a href="https://www.capitolhillblue.com/node/byline/hope-yen-and-calvin-woodward" rel="tag">HOPE YEN and CALVIN WOODWARD</a>

President Donald Trump addresses the crowd during a campaign rally Saturday, Oct. 6, 2018, in Topeka, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Facing pivotal November elections, President Donald Trump is misrepresenting the history of African-American voting and exaggerating his influence in boosting income and controlling prescription drug prices.

He laments in campaign speeches on behalf of Republican candidates that blacks’ support for Democrats had become “habit,” having voted for them “for 100 years,” and insists his administration’s policies are changing that. In fact, most African-Americans were effectively blocked from the right to vote until 1965. Much of the income gains he claims for blacks and other minorities came during the Obama administration.

On drug costs, Trump says he is “bringing them down.” But few drugmakers have actually lowered prices as a result of his pressure.

And in remarks at the hot core of the debate over his new Supreme Court justice, Trump distorted the testimony of Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser in a mocking turn on a rally stage before the Senate elevated the judge to the high court on the weekend.

A look at the past week’s claims:

BLACK VOTE

TRUMP, on black support for Democratic candidates in recent elections: “It’s only habit. It’s habit, because for 100 years, African-Americans have gone with Democrats.” — Kansas rally Saturday.

THE FACTS: No, black Americans did not primarily vote Democratic for 100 years, or anywhere close to it.

Most African-Americans for much of U.S. history were disenfranchised, then effectively deterred from voting via poll taxes and literacy tests until passage of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which outlawed racial discrimination in voting.

African-Americans who could vote before then generally backed Republican candidates until the 1932 election of President Franklin D. Roosevelt. His New Deal programs of economic relief won their support and helped spur a longer-term shift of black voting from Republican to Democratic.

The Voting Rights Act eliminated literacy tests, clamped down on poll taxes that the 24th Amendment had banned in federal elections a year earlier and required a number of mostly Southern states with a history of discrimination to get advance federal approval to make changes to their election laws. Before that, only an estimated 23 percent of voting-age blacks were registered nationally, says the Library of Congress , but by 1969 that had jumped to 61 percent.

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MEDIAN INCOME

TRUMP: “How does your African-American, how do you vote for somebody else? I’ve done more for them in two years… And their median income is the highest. But not only for African-Americans, for Asian.” — Minnesota rally Thursday.

THE FACTS: He’s wrong about median income now being the highest for African-Americans. He also exaggerates the economic gains he’s accomplished for blacks and Asian-Americans.

The median income last year for an African-American household was $40,258, according to the Census Bureau. That’s below a 2000 peak of $42,348 and also statistically no better than 2016, which was Democratic President Barack Obama’s last year in office.

Many economists view the continued economic growth since the middle of 2009, in Obama’s first term, as the primary explanation for recent hiring and income gains. More important, there are multiple signs that the racial wealth gap is now worsening and the administration appears to have done little, if anything, to address this problem specifically.

As to Asian-Americans, the median income for a typical household last year was $81,331. That’s no better than their median income of $83,182 in 2016.

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KAVANAUGH

TRUMP, as if recounting the questioning of Christine Blasey Ford at her Senate hearing: ‘How did you get there?’ ‘I don’t remember.’ ‘Where is the place?’ ‘I don’t remember.’ ‘How many years ago was it?’ ‘I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know.’ ‘What neighborhood was it in?’ “I don’t know.′ ‘Where’s the house’ ‘I don’t know.’ Upstairs, downstairs, where was it?′ ‘I don’t know. But I had one beer, that’s the only thing I remember.’ And a man’s life is in tatters. A man’s life is shattered. … They want to destroy people. These are really evil people.” — Mississippi rally Tuesday.

THE FACTS: He’s wrong to say Kavanaugh’s accuser could not recall whether the alleged sexual assault happened upstairs or downstairs or any level of detail regarding the likely location. She described in vivid detail being in a locked upstairs bedroom with Kavanaugh and his friend Mark Judge while others were downstairs at a small house party. Trump also falsely stated that she did not remember how many years ago this happened. She identified the summer of 1982, when she was 15.

It’s true she could not identify the house, or remember how she got there or home, but said it was within a “20-minute drive” between her house and a country club in the Bethesda, Maryland, area.

Researchers say it is common for people who have experienced a trauma to retain a searing memory of the event but not circumstances surrounding it.

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DRUG PRICES

TRUMP: “You might have seen last month where I called up some of the drug companies. I said, ‘Folks, you just raised up the drug prices. You can’t do that.’ And they all reduced them. Do you believe it? That’s when I said, ‘I’ve a lot of power.’ Pfizer, right? You saw that. Pfizer, Novartis, they raised their drug prices and I’m bringing them down. I said, ‘What are you doing with raising them?’ ‘I’m sorry, Mr. President, we’ll reduce them immediately.’ I said, ‘Man, this is a powerful position.’” — Minnesota rally Thursday.

THE FACTS: His account is overstated.

His call with Pfizer was at the beginning of July, not last month. It came right after he criticized Pfizer on Twitter for raising prices of about 40 drugs on July 1. Pfizer reversed those increases, meaning prices returned to their June 30 levels, though only until Jan. 1, 2019, at the latest. Novartis was one of several drugmakers that said they wouldn’t raise any prices for the rest of 2018, but they’d already done so on nearly all of their drugs earlier in the year.

Few drugmakers actually lowered prices as a result of Trump’s pressure. A few drugs had price cuts for business reasons.

More broadly, an Associated Press investigation of brand-name prescription drugs found 96 price increases for every price reduction in the first seven months of this year. There were fewer price increases this year from January through July than in comparable prior year periods, but companies still raised prices far more often than they cut them.

AP analyzed 26,176 U.S. list price changes for brand-name prescription drugs from Jan. 1 through July 31 in the years 2015 through 2018, using data supplied by health information analytics firm Elsevier.

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VETERANS

TRUMP: “We just passed Choice. That was 44 years they’ve been trying to pass Choice, so that if you have to wait in line for 9 days, 30 days, 21 days, months, you don’t do that anymore. If the line’s big, and if you’re unhappy with it, you go to a private doctor, they take care of you, and we paid the bill. It’s better. They’ve been trying to pass that one for many, many decades. They couldn’t do it. We got it passed.” — Tennessee rally on Oct. 1.

TRUMP: “We also passed Veterans’ Choice. Forty-four years they tried to do it.“— Mississippi rally Tuesday.

THE FACTS: He’s exaggerating improvements to the Department of Veterans Affairs by incorrectly stating a private-sector health care program was never passed by Congress before him. He also falsely suggests the newly expanded program will have immediate effect.

Congress first approved the Veterans Choice program in 2014 in the wake of a scandal at the Phoenix VA medical center in which some veterans died while waiting months for appointments. The program allows veterans to see doctors outside the VA system if they must wait more than 30 days for an appointment or drive more than 40 miles to a VA facility.

Trump signed legislation in June to expand the Choice program by giving veterans even wider access to private-sector doctors at government expense, subject to yet-to-be-finalized rules that will determine eligibility as well as available funding.

Contrary to what Trump suggests, the effects of the newly expanded program are not immediate. Key to its success is an overhaul of the VA’s electronic medical records to allow seamless sharing of medical records not only with the Pentagon but also private physicians, a process expected to take up to 10 years. The VA also has yet to resolve long-term financing for the program due to congressional budget caps that could put funding for VA or other domestic programs at risk of shortfalls next year.

At a Senate hearing last month, VA Secretary Robert Wilkie made clear that full implementation of the expanded Choice program was “years” away.

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IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT

TRUMP: “The new platform of the Democrat Party is to abolish ICE — the brave, brave people of ICE. In other words, they want to abolish immigration enforcement entirely.” — Mississippi rally Tuesday.

THE FACTS: While some Democrats in the House and Senate have raised the prospect of eliminating Immigration and Customs Enforcement, no top Democrats in the House or Senate have called for such a move. Those Democrats who have expressed openness to eliminating ICE have said they would not abandon border enforcement, which is largely carried out by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

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U.S.-MEXICO-CANADA TRADE

TRUMP: “The agreement will govern nearly $1.2 trillion in trade, which makes it the biggest trade deal in the United States’ history.” — remarks Oct. 1.

THE FACTS: That’s wrong, simply by virtue of the number of trade partners involved.

The proposed new agreement, replacing the North American Free Trade agreement, covers the same three countries. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, negotiated by the Obama administration, included the three NAFTA partners — United States, Canada and Mexico — plus Japan and eight other Pacific Rim countries. Trump withdrew the United States from the pact on his third day in office.

Even the Pacific deal pales in comparison with one that did go into effect with the U.S. on board, the Uruguay Round. Concluded in 1994, the round of negotiations created the World Trade Organization and was signed by 123 countries. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston found the following year that the WTO’s initial membership accounted for more than 90 percent of global economic output.

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TRUMP: “This deal will also impose new standards requiring at least 75 percent of every automobile to be made in North America in order to qualify for the privilege of free access to our markets.” — remarks Oct. 1.

THE FACTS: That’s true. But as with any such requirement, it could make autos more expensive by discouraging the use of cheaper components from overseas. The same could be true of another provision, requiring at least 40 percent of a car’s content to be built where workers earn $16 an hour. The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement indeed contains greater worker protections, a trade-off that could mean higher costs.

The pact, if approved by Congress, will raise the percentage of a car’s content that must be built within the trade bloc to 75 percent from 62.5 percent if it is to qualify for duty-free status.

Similarly, the deal would give pharmaceutical companies that make biologics —ultra-expensive drugs produced in living cells — 10 years of protection from generic competition, two more years than the Obama administration had negotiated under the Pacific deal. That also comes with the possible trade-off of higher costs for users of the drugs.

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TRUMP, on overcoming the major hitch with Canada: “Dairy was a deal-breaker. And now for our farmers it’s, as you know, substantially opened up much more. And I know they can’t open it completely. They have farmers also. You know, they can’t be overrun. And I fully — and I tell them that. I say, ‘Look, I understand you have limits.’ But they could do much better.” — remarks Oct. 1.

THE FACTS: That’s a fair reading of one of the agreement’s most significant changes — though dairy only accounts for about 0.1 percent of U.S.-Canada trade. Canada’s tariffs on dairy imports can approach 300 percent. U.S. dairy farmers have also complained about Canadian policies that priced the U.S. out of the market for some dairy powders and allowed Canada to flood world markets with its own versions.

The new agreement would end the discriminatory pricing and restrict Canadian exports of dairy powders. Still, it’s in some respects an incremental advance from the Pacific deal that Trump walked away from. It would expand U.S. access to up to 3.75 percent of the Canadian dairy market, versus 3.25 percent in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Above that level, U.S. dairy farmers will still face Canada’s punishing tariffs.

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TRUMP: “As one primary aspect, it will transform North America back into a manufacturing powerhouse.” — remarks Oct. 1.

THE FACTS: North America already is a manufacturing powerhouse. The United States ranks No. 2 in the world behind China in manufacturing output. Mexico ranks 11th and Canada 13th, according to U.N. numbers pulled together by the Brookings Institution.

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TRUMP: “I think my biggest concession was making the deal, because we could have done it a different way. But it would have been nasty, and it wouldn’t have been nice, and I don’t want to have that.” — remarks Oct. 1.

THE FACTS: Other concessions were made, as is typically the case in trade agreements.

For one, the “supply management” system Canada uses to protect its farmers would remain largely intact. For another, 2.6 million passenger vehicles from Canada and Mexico each would be exempt from tariffs of up to 25 percent that he has been threatening to impose on imported cars, trucks and auto parts. And Canada prevailed in insisting that a NAFTA dispute-resolution process be retained. The U.S. wanted to get rid of it.

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Associated Press writers Linda Johnson in Trenton, New Jersey, and Paul Wiseman in Washington contributed to this report.

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Facts disprove claims of Kavanaugh, others

September 30, 2018September 30, 2018 by <a href="https://www.capitolhillblue.com/node/byline/calvin-woodward-and-chloe-kim" rel="tag">CALVIN WOODWARD and CHLOE KIM</a>

Supreme court nominee Brett Kavanaugh testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, Sept. 27, 2018. (Saul Loeb/Pool Photo via AP)

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and his Senate supporters misrepresented the record when they stated that three witnesses refuted Christine Blasey Ford’s allegation that he sexually assaulted her at a party more than 30 years ago.

The three swore they had no recollection of the party — providing no support for Ford’s accusations laid out to the Senate Judiciary Committee. But their statements do not disprove the allegations, either.

KAVANAUGH, in testimony Thursday: “Dr. Ford’s allegations are not merely uncorroborated, it’s refuted by the very people she says were there.”

REPUBLICAN SEN. CHUCK GRASSLEY, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, contended Friday that the sum of statements by the three witnesses “refutes Dr. Ford’s version of the facts.”

REPUBLICAN SEN. TED CRUZ of Texas: “All three of those fact witnesses have stated on the record under penalty of perjury that they do not recall what she is alleging happening. They have not only not, not corroborated her charges, they have explicitly refuted her charges.” — hearing Thursday.

THE FACTS: The witness statements in question do not corroborate Ford’s allegations, but they also do not exonerate Kavanaugh. They leave open the possibility that people at the small gathering forgot about it or were not in position to witness the assault.

Even Mark Judge, who Ford says was in the bedroom when Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her, has not denied that such an episode took place. His sworn statement to the committee says “I have no memory of this alleged incident,” ″do not recall the party” and “never saw Brett act in the manner Dr. Ford describes.”

In another statement, Patrick J. Smyth, identified by Ford as being among those downstairs at the party, says “I have no knowledge of the party in question; nor do I have any knowledge of the allegations of improper conduct she has leveled against Brett Kavanaugh.’”

And the lawyer for Ford’s friend, Leland Ingham Keyser, said in a statement: “Ms. Keyser does not know Mr. Kavanaugh and she has no recollection of ever being at a party or gathering where he was present, with, without, Dr. Ford.”

Kavanaugh accurately summarized those statements when he told senators: “All of the people identified by Dr. Ford as being present at the party have said they do not remember any such party ever happening. Importantly her friend Ms. Keyser has not only denied knowledge of the party. Ms. Keyser said under penalty of felony she does not know me, does not ever recall being at a party with me ever.”

Despite saying she hadn’t met Kavanaugh and doesn’t remember the party, Keyser told The Washington Post that she believes Ford.

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Trump gets ‘facts’ wrong on Kavanaugh mess

September 23, 2018September 23, 2018 by <a href="https://www.capitolhillblue.com/node/byline/hope-yen-and-calvin-woodward" rel="tag">HOPE YEN and CALVIN WOODWARD</a>

President Donald Trump speaks at a spending bill signing ceremony at VA Southern Nevada Healthcare System in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Juggling a suddenly hot-potato Supreme Court nomination and midterm-election jousting, President Donald Trump flubbed facts across a broad front over the past week.

His comments about nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser betrayed a misunderstanding of how the process works. His claim to be in the league of George Washington when it comes to placing judges on the bench is refuted by the record. His statements that the economy has never been better ignore the bad mixed in with the good. His boast about moderation in “Obamacare” premiums overlooks reasons why.

A look at recent rhetoric and the reality behind it:

KAVANAUGH

TRUMP, on Christine Blasey Ford’s allegation that Kavanaugh assaulted her at a party in the 1980s: “The radical left lawyers want the FBI to get involved NOW. Why didn’t someone call the FBI 36 years ago?” — tweet Friday.

THE FACTS: The FBI would not have been the number to call. The behavior alleged by Ford is not a federal crime but one that might have been investigated by local authorities if reported. She said he pinned her on a bed and tried taking off her clothes during a high school party in Maryland in the 1980s; Kavanaugh denies the allegations.

Democrats want the FBI to get involved now because the bureau conducts background checks on presidential nominees. The FBI background check of Kavanaugh was completed before the allegations emerged. Democrats and various advocates, not just “radical left lawyers,” want the FBI to reopen its investigation in light of the accusation. The FBI can only do so if the White House requests that step.

Trump is trying to cast suspicion on Ford’s credibility by questioning why the then-teenager “or her loving parents” did not go to the police “if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says,” as he put it in another tweet. It has long been the norm for sexual assaults to go unreported to authorities.

A Justice Department report estimated that from 1992 to 2000, just more than one-third of rapes or attempted rapes were reported to police, only 26 percent of sexual assaults and less than 10 percent on college campuses.

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TRUMP, on Democratic calls for the FBI to reopen its background investigation: “Well, it would seem that the FBI really doesn’t do that. They’ve investigated about six times before, and it seems that they don’t do that.” — remarks Wednesday.

DEMOCRATIC SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN of California: “Fact check: The FBI can investigate Dr. Blasey Ford’s allegations as part of its background investigation – that is their job. To say otherwise is FALSE. It investigated Anita Hill’s allegations of sexual harassment against Clarence Thomas. It should investigate this too.” — tweet Tuesday.

THE FACTS: Neither Trump nor Feinstein is entirely correct.

Only the White House can order the FBI to look into the claim as part of Kavanaugh’s background investigation because Ford is not accusing Kavanaugh of a federal crime.

The FBI could interview Ford, Kavanaugh and others about the allegation if Trump asked the bureau to reopen its background investigation. But Trump said the FBI has already done its work.

Each side’s take on the propriety of a reopened FBI probe has political calculations. Republicans are seeking to wrap up Kavanaugh’s confirmation quickly while they are still in control of the Senate, and Democrats view it as more advantageous to delay a vote until after the November elections, when they hope to gain a majority.

As for Feinstein’s point that the FBI investigated Hill’s accusations against Thomas, that’s true but it was because Republican President George H.W. Bush asked the bureau to do so.

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ECONOMY

TRUMP: “I don’t think we’ve ever had an economy like this.” — remarks Wednesday on White House’s South Lawn.

THE FACTS: The president is correct as far as that statement goes, but not entirely in the favorable ways he suggests.

It is true that the U.S. economy is relatively healthy with solid hiring gains and a strong stock market. Growth got an adrenaline boost this year because of the deficit-financed tax cuts that Trump signed into law last year. But economic growth has hardly ascended to a new peak. The 4.2 percent annual growth in the second quarter was bested twice, as recently as 2014 under President Barack Obama.

Instead, what makes the U.S. economy unique under Trump are major trends that aren’t very positive:

—Never has the U.S. economy been involved in a trade conflict equal to the magnitude of its current showdown with China. The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and China’s retaliations have opened up a battle between the world’s two largest economies that could last for weeks or decades, according to trade experts.

—Never has the federal deficit been set to climb so high during a period of economic stability. When Trump cut taxes last year, he piled on roughly $1.5 trillion of debt over the next decade. Additional spending in his budget only added to the imbalance. Publicly held government debt will be equal in size to the entire U.S. gross domestic product in 2028, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That’s the most since 1946, when the United States was coming out of World War II and the Great Depression.

—Income inequality has worsened. Someone in the top 5 percent of earners makes 3.86 times more than the median U.S. household with an income of $61,372, according to the Census Bureau. That is the highest gap ever tracked by Census data going back 50 years. In 1967, the top 5 percent earned 2.66 times the median.

These forces have helped lead the economy into seemingly unprecedented territory under Trump.

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FEDERAL JUDGES

TRUMP: “We’ll have more judges put on than any other president other than one. Do you know who the one is? George Washington. Percentage wise.” ″You know I have 145 (judges nominated), plus hopefully two Supreme Court judges. And that’s assuming nobody leaves the bench which they will over the next period of time.” ″I often say, ‘Who has highest percentage of federal judges.’ They say, ‘You do.’ I’ll say, ‘No, no. I got killed.’ They said, ‘George Washington’ … because he appointed a hundred percent of the judges.” — interview released Wednesday with Hill TV.

THE FACTS: Not so fast. His claim of appointing more judges than any other president except for perhaps Washington is highly questionable, according to an analysis of judicial appointment data conducted for The Associated Press.

So far Trump has appointed 68 judges who have been confirmed to the federal courts. That translates to about 8 percent of the total federal judgeships at the 20-month mark in his presidency. That lags at least four previous presidents in terms of both raw numbers and percentages, said Russell Wheeler, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and expert on judicial appointments.

Wheeler, a former deputy director of the Federal Judicial Center, crunched historical data from the center and the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. He found that Trump trails Republican presidents George W. Bush (77) and Ronald Reagan (78), as well as Democrats Bill Clinton (85) and John F. Kennedy (109) at the comparable points in their presidencies.

Wheeler also put together a ranking based on the number of appointees in 20 months as a percentage of “authorized judgeships,” or the total seats created by Congress. Trump lagged at least 17 other presidents, including Washington, who as the first president appointed 100 percent of the federal judges. At the 20-month mark, for instance, Kennedy appointees occupied roughly 27 percent of the judicial seats then authorized by Congress, far higher than Trump’s 8 percent.

Trump appears to be including in his cited figure those he has nominated to the federal bench, but who have not yet been confirmed.

Even when accounting for that, Trump’s total of confirmed judges and current nominees represents 16 percent of the total judgeships. Kennedy and Grover Cleveland reached higher percentages based on their confirmed judges alone.

“It’s hard to comprehend what President Trump exactly meant by his statement,” Wheeler told the AP. “He does have a strong record so far in appointments to the U.S. Court of Appeals — 20 months in, Trump appointees occupy 15 percent of authorized circuit judgeships — but on that score he still trails Kennedy and Eisenhower, and Grover Cleveland, for that matter.”

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HEALTH COSTS

TRUMP: “The thing that I really am very happy to announce is that the rates are far lower than they would have been under the previous administration, or under a Democrat administration. We’re holding the rates down. … The remnant of Obamacare is much less expensive than people thought. They were going up, before I got here, at 118 percent, in some cases; 150 percent, 160 percent, 55 percent. We have the percentage going up at a much lower level because we’re managing it very, very carefully.” — remarks Monday at a meeting of the National Council for the American Worker.

THE FACTS: He’s taking undue credit for the turnaround.

Trump appears to be referring to a recent analysis by Avalere Health and the AP that found a 3.3 percent average increase in proposed or approved premiums across 47 states and Washington, D.C., for 2019. After two years of double-digit increases, premiums are expected to decline in about a dozen states. The analysis also found that 19 states will see either new insurers enter their market or expand into more areas.

Experts say the main reason for the flip in the heath law’s fortunes is that the premium increases of previous years allowed insurers to return to profitability. About 9 in 10 Affordable Care Act customers receive subsidies that are designed to increase with the rising cost of insurance, protecting them from price jumps. Those taxpayer-backed subsidies allowed the insurers to stanch their earlier losses. At the same time, the companies are savvier about managing risks in the market.

A major factor behind last year’s spike in premiums was Trump’s abrupt cancellation of a separate major stream of payments to insurers. But this midterm election year the administration has refrained from roiling the markets.

Trump’s claim that rates are far lower than they would have been under a Democratic administration is questionable, because Democrats have had no shortage of ideas for addressing high premiums.

The improved outlook for the health law is no consolation for people who need individual health insurance policies but make too much money to qualify for subsidies. They have been dropping out of the market in droves. The Trump administration is promoting lower-cost short-term policies and association health plans to help this group, but it’s too early to say how those ideas will fare in the market.

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TARIFFS

TRUMP: “Tariffs have put the U.S. in a very strong bargaining position, with Billions of Dollars, and Jobs, flowing into our Country – and yet cost increases have thus far been almost unnoticeable. If countries will not make fair deals with us, they will be ‘Tariffed!’” — tweet Monday.

THE FACTS: In trade talks with China, Canada and Mexico, it’s not entirely clear how much of an advantage the United States has gained from the tariffs. The import taxes imposed on steel and aluminum have been pressure points. So are the tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods, with the president suggesting he’s prepared to tax an additional $467 billion of imports from China. But Americans have to see a final deal with Canada or China to assess whether these taxes are delivering a better bargain.

Still, have tariffs brought in billions of dollars and jobs without increasing inflation?

Yes, the tariffs have brought in slightly more revenue. It’s hard to know if they’ve helped create jobs. And the companies closest to the tariffs say that, yes, inflation is a risk.

In theory, the tariffs should add money to federal coffers. The 25 percent tax the Trump administration slapped on $50 billion of Chinese imports should raise $12.5 billion if the flow of goods continues without interruption.

And even though many tariffs haven’t been in place long enough to determine whether they’re helping draw in significantly more revenue, the Treasury Department said there has been a $5.4 billion jump in the collection of customs and duties so far this fiscal year. Some of this increase is due to more imports. But customs and duties account for just 1.2 percent of federal revenues, so any increase from tariffs does little to address the ballooning budget deficit.

The U.S. economy was adding jobs before the tariffs were announced, and it has been adding jobs since. It’s hard to know at this stage how the tariffs have influenced the pace of job creation, since any analysis would need to consider the whole of the nine-year expansion and the stimulus from Trump’s deficit-funded tax cut.

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TRUMP: “Our Steel Industry is the talk of the World. It has been given new life, and is thriving. Billions of Dollars is being spent on new plants all around the country!” — tweet Monday.

THE FACTS: Trump has certainly helped steelmakers, but so far it’s not the dramatic turnaround that he portrays.

Analysts at Citibank said this month that steel companies have approved more than $3 billion in investment following the tariffs. Some steel mills have restarted old lines and added new capacity.

Manufacturers focused on primary metals have added 7,100 workers in the past 12 months for a total of 381,700 jobs, according to the Labor Department. But that total still lags the 402,600 jobs with primary metal manufacturers at the end of 2014. A stronger dollar and lower oil prices hurt the demand for steel products, causing production and employment to fall. And Trump is a long way from the more than 450,000 jobs in this sector at the start of 2008.

More importantly, steel is a modest component of U.S. job growth. Primary metals represented just 0.3 percent of the 2.33 million job gains in the past year.

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Associated Press writers Josh Boak, Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar and Christopher Rugaber contributed to this report.

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Trump’s blustery myths obscure truth about hurricanes, etc.

September 15, 2018 by HOPE YEN

President Donald Trump, left, talks about Hurricane Florence during a briefing in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington as FEMA Administrator Brock Long listens. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

In a stormy week, President Donald Trump blustered and distorted reality, denying massive deaths from a hurricane that scientists believe to be one of the nation’s deadliest and blowing out of proportion U.S. economic growth and his role in spurring it.

He’s insisting the federal response to Hurricane Maria, which hit Puerto Rico last September, was “incredibly successful,” even though blackouts there remain common and several forms of federal aid have been slow to arrive compared with past disasters. Independent researchers have estimated the death toll was nearly 3,000 people. Trump is rejecting that work, claiming it’s a conspiracy by Democrats and isn’t true.

And as the November elections near, Trump is citing record-breaking middle-class income that isn’t so and exaggerating progress on his long-promised wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

At the same time, some of Trump’s critics were not entirely immune from hyperbole.

Former President Barack Obama asserted “healthy” economic growth during his administration that is in dispute and a Democratic lawmaker blamed all the estimated deaths from Puerto Rico’s hurricane on the Trump administration, as if the storm itself took no one.

A look at some of the recent claims:

MIDDLE-CLASS INCOME

TRUMP: “‘Middle-Class Income Hits All-Time High!’ @foxandfriends And will continue to rise (unless the Dems get in and destroy what we have built).” — tweet Thursday.

VICE PRESIDENT MIKE PENCE: “Just today, if you hadn’t heard about it yet, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that, last year, middle-class incomes in America hit an all-time high — that’s worth celebrating — for working families.” — remarks Wednesday in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

THE FACTS: These assertions are an example of how Trump and other administration officials often seek credit for trends in place before they took office. Trump’s own Census Bureau also cast doubt on the claims.

Median U.S. household income — the level at which half of the U.S. population earns more and half less — grew 5.1 percent in 2015 and 3.1 percent in 2016, during the Obama administration. It was the fastest two-year growth on records dating to 1967. In 2017, Trump’s first year in office, median income grew at a slower pace of 1.8 percent to reach a In a stormy week, President Donald Trump blustered and distorted reality, denying massive deaths from a hurricane that scientists believe to be one of the nation’s deadliest and blowing out of proportion U.S. economic growth and his role in spurring it.

And as the November elections near, Trump is citing record-breaking middle-class income that isn’t so and exaggerating progress on his long-promised wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

At the same time, some of Trump’s critics were not entirely immune from hyperbole.

A look at some of the recent claims:

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi slammed President Donald Trump for dismissing death toll in Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria. (Sept. 14)

MIDDLE-CLASS INCOME

TRUMP: “‘Middle-Class Income Hits All-Time High!’ @foxandfriends And will continue to rise (unless the Dems get in and destroy what we have built).” — tweet Thursday.

Median U.S. household income — the level at which half of the U.S. population earns more and half less — grew 5.1 percent in 2015 and 3.1 percent in 2016, during the Obama administration. It was the fastest two-year growth on records dating to 1967. In 2017, Trump’s first year in office, median income grew at a slower pace of 1.8 percent to reach what technically was an all-time high, adjusted for inflation, of $61,372.

The Census Bureau, however, warned in its report Wednesday that after adjusting for changes in its methodology in 2013, last year’s figure was not actually an all-time high. Instead, it remained slightly below 1999′s level of $61,966, though the bureau noted that the difference was minor.

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OBAMA: “And by the time I left office, household income was near its all-time high.” — rally Sept. 7 at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

THE FACTS: That’s true, though it was a long time coming. According to the Census Bureau, in 2016 the typical household earned $59,039, adjusted for inflation, nearly matching the peak it reached in 1999. Another way of looking at those figures, of course, is that the U.S. middle class essentially went 17 years, Obama’s two terms included, without a raise.

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BORDER WALL

TRUMP: “We’re building the wall, not only building it, we’ve already started it. We’ve started the wall. $1.6 billion last year, $1.6 billion this year, we’re rapidly in San Diego and other parts of the country. We’re picking the locations that are worse.” — remarks Sept. 7 at fundraising event in South Dakota.

THE FACTS: Trump’s suggestion that he secured $3.2 billion for construction of a wall along the U.S-Mexico border is wrong. Nor is the construction underway adding any mileage to what’s already in place.

Congress allocated $1.6 billion for the wall and related security measures this year. The administration requested an additional $1.6 billion next year to add 65 miles (104 kilometers) of wall in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley but has not received any of it. Legislative leaders in the House and Senate pledged agreement this past week on a short-term spending bill that would not address wall money. GOP leaders have said they preferred to resolve the issue after the Nov. 6 elections.

Trump is correct that wall construction is underway in San Diego — as well as Santa Teresa, New Mexico, and Calexico, California — but it replaces or fortifies existing barriers. Barriers currently blanket 654 miles (1,046 kilometers), or roughly one-third of the border with Mexico, much of it built under President George W. Bush.

The $1.6 billion that Congress authorized this year came with a condition that the wall must adhere to existing designs. Last year, the administration built eight prototypes in San Diego that were intended to guide future construction.

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HURRICANE RESPONSE

TRUMP: “3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000….” ″This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!” —tweets Thursday.

THE FACTS: He is making a baseless assertion that massive deaths did not happen, even if the exact toll from the hurricane remains imprecise.

Independent researchers at George Washington University estimated 2,975 excess deaths related to Hurricane Maria in the six months following the hurricane, which hit last September. Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello commissioned the study and accepted the death toll as the best available. Rossello rejected the findings of a different study that estimated more than 4,000 died, saying he found the GWU research with its lower number to be scientifically sound.

The study found that 22 percent more people died than would have been expected during that period in a year without the storm. Its central finding has been roughly corroborated by other, similar studies. A second phase will examine the circumstances of specific deaths to arrive at a more precise number.

The lead researcher on the study was Dr. Carlos Santos-Burgoa, a well-known expert in global health, particularly Latin America.

Trump’s claim that the death toll was no more than 18 when he visited Puerto Rico, nearly two weeks after the storm, ignores the fact that the U.S. territory’s official death toll was raised to 34 later that day, Oct. 3. After that, it climbed to 64. With services devastated, most power out, many people desperate for food and water and roads impassable, it was impossible to know how many died directly from Maria or from floodwaters or deprivation in its immediate aftermath.

That’s why the official death toll remained relatively low until researchers could examine death records and gain a broader understanding of people’s circumstances.

It took years to assess the death toll from Hurricane Katrina in 2005 despite the relative accessibility of the Gulf Coast, for example. About 1,800 died from Katrina.

Trump was a one-man island in attributing the Puerto Rican death estimate to Democrats. House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., saw “no reason to dispute” the estimate. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., tweeted his support of the 3,000 finding and lamented that “These days even tragedy becomes political.” Several other Republican lawmakers from Florida similarly rejected Trump’s words. Democrats were outraged.

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TRUMP: “We got A Pluses for our recent hurricane work in Texas and Florida (and did an unappreciated great job in Puerto Rico, even though an inaccessible island with very poor electricity and a totally incompetent Mayor of San Juan).” — tweet Wednesday.

TRUMP: “I think Puerto Rico was incredibly successful. Puerto Rico was, actually, our toughest one of all because it’s an island … Everything is by boat …The job that FEMA and law enforcement and everybody did, working along with the Governor in Puerto Rico, I think was tremendous. I think that Puerto Rico was an incredible, unsung success.” — remarks Tuesday.

THE FACTS: Trump’s claim that the federal government had an “incredibly successful” response to Maria is questionable.

The storm is estimated to be one of the nation’s worst disasters, after the U.S. territory raised its official death toll from 64 to 2,975 based on the GWU study. That surpasses the 1,800 people who died from Hurricane Katrina. Maria is also estimated to have caused $100 billion in damage.

A July report by the Federal Emergency Management Agency noted several shortcomings in its response, including that it underestimated how much food and water would be needed after the storm and that not enough Spanish-speaking aid workers were deployed to the island.

Responding to Trump’s comments, Rossello disputed the notion that the response was “successful.”

Blackouts still remain common; nearly 60,000 homes are covered by only a makeshift roof not capable of withstanding a Category 1 hurricane; and 13 percent of municipalities lack stable phone or internet service.

In Maria’s aftermath, according to FEMA data analyzed by the AP, approvals for individual assistance checks in Puerto Rico were slower compared with what happened with large storms last year. From Sept. 30 to Oct. 7, not one of those checks was approved. On Oct. 8 the approvals began rolling again, but with a large spike suggesting a backlog.

In addition, data from the U.S. Small Business Administration indicate that approvals for disaster loans in Puerto Rico were slow — the first one was not approved until 15 days after the storm was declared, four times as long as with Hurricane Harvey.

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DEMOCRATIC SEN. ROBERT MENENDEZ of New Jersey: “You’re right, Mr. President. The Hurricane didn’t kill 3,000 people. Your botched response did.” — tweet Thursday.

THE FACTS: He’s taking it too far. Whatever the shortcomings of the federal response, attributing a specific death toll to that alone is unsupported. FEMA faced some problems that were beyond its control, principally the sheer force of the Category 4 monster storm as well as the logistical difficulties of reaching the Caribbean island, more than 1,000 miles from the U.S. mainland.

Residents have been critical of the hurricane response by local officials, not just by Washington. Puerto Rico’s government has acknowledged that its emergency plans were designed only for a Category 1 hurricane, and admitted failures to follow those plans and communications breakdowns.

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ECONOMY AND JOBS

TRUMP: “The GDP rate (4.2 percent) is higher than the Unemployment Rate (3.9 percent) for the first time in over 100 years!” — tweet Monday.

WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISER KEVIN HASSETT: “The correct number is 10 years.” — briefing Monday.

THE FACTS: Actually, the correct number is 12 years. In the first three months of 2006, the economy expanded at a 5.4 percent annual rate. At the same time, the unemployment rate was 4.7 percent.

The economy’s growth rate, which reached 4.2 percent in the April-June quarter, has been higher than the unemployment rate dozens of times since World War II. Hassett acknowledged Trump’s tweet was wrong.

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HASSETT: “There was an inflection at the election of Donald Trump, and … a whole bunch of data items started heading north.” — briefing Monday.

THE FACTS: If you look at a chart of monthly job gains or the economy’s growth rate, that inflection point is hard to spot. Hassett notably did not include in his presentation any mention of overall job creation or the broadest measurement of the economy’s output, GDP.

That’s probably because the growth rate Trump repeatedly cites, the 4.2 percent expansion at an annual rate that occurred in the April-June quarter, isn’t out of line with Obama’s record. The economy grew more quickly than that four times during Obama’s eight years in office.

Economists generally acknowledge that growth has accelerated this year compared with 2016 and 2017, and most of them partly credit last year’s tax cuts for fueling more consumer and business spending. The economy is on pace to grow at a 3 percent or faster pace in 2018, which would be the first time since 2005 it would reach that mark.

Yet it barely missed that cutoff in 2015, when it expanded 2.9 percent under Obama.

When it comes to jobs, the U.S. added more jobs in each of the last three years of Obama’s presidency, 2014-2016, than it did last year, Trump’s first in office. Job growth has picked up a bit this year but is still on track to come in below the 2014-2015 pace.

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OBAMA: “The actions we took during that crisis returned the economy to healthy growth and initiated the longest streak of job creation on record.” — rally Sept. 7 at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

THE FACTS: He’s right on jobs, but whether the economy experienced “healthy growth” is a matter of dispute.

As measured by the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy’s output, the U.S. economy expanded at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent from 2010, after the Great Recession ended, through 2016, Obama’s last year in office. That is the weakest growth of any post-recession recovery since World War II.

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OBAMA: “When the job numbers come out, the monthly job numbers, and suddenly Republicans are saying it’s a miracle, I have to kind of remind them, actually, those job numbers are the same as they were in 2015 and 2016.” — Illinois rally.

THE FACTS: Obama is correct, though many economists are surprised that hiring has continued at such a solid pace after more than nine years of expansion. Job gains even picked up a bit in 2018.

Still, in 2015 employers added an average of 226,000 jobs a month. Last year, Trump’s first in the White House, that figure fell to 182,000 a month. So far in 2018, hiring has come in a bit better, averaging 207,000 a month.

In some ways, Obama isn’t giving himself enough credit: The strongest year for job growth since the recession was 2014, when employers added more than 250,000 on average every month.

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Associated Press writers Christopher Rugaber and Lauran Neergaard in Washington and Elliot Spagat in San Diego contributed to this report.

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Trump not even close on latest economic claims

September 11, 2018September 11, 2018 by CHRISTOPHER RUGABER

Kevin Hassett, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, speaks during the daily press briefing at the White House, Monday, Sept. 10, 2018, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

President Donald Trump pitched a wildly off-base claim about economic growth Monday as the White House used selective statistics to build a case that the economy is doing much better than when Barack Obama was in office.

The attention on Obama comes as the ex-president steps back into the political arena on behalf of Democrats in the November elections. The White House dispatched economic adviser Kevin Hassett to rebut Obama’s point that his policies helped end the Great Recession and put the economy on a growth path that Trump is now mostly benefiting from.

Companies are much more optimistic and have increased spending on buildings and equipment, Hassett said. Americans are starting new businesses and the increase in startups is accelerating more quickly than it did under Obama, he added, and blue-collar jobs — in mining, construction and manufacturing — are growing more rapidly.

Yet some of the White House’s case is wrong, exaggerated or lacks context:

TRUMP, in a tweet: “The GDP rate (4.2 percent) is higher than the Unemployment Rate (3.9 percent) for the first time in over 100 years!”

HASSETT: “The correct number is 10 years.”

THE FACTS: Actually, the correct number is 12 years. In the first three months of 2006, the economy expanded at a 5.4 percent annual rate. At the same time, the unemployment rate was 4.7 percent.

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HASSETT: “There was an inflection at the election of Donald Trump, and … a whole bunch of data items started heading north.”

Yet it barely missed that cutoff in 2015, when it expanded 2.9 percent under Obama.

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HASSETT: “Small-business optimism is near the highest level in 35 years.”

THE FACTS: This is true. Small-business owners, as a whole, became far more optimistic about the economy after Trump’s election.

Many small-business people felt Obama was dismissive toward their efforts, particularly after his “You didn’t build that” comment in July 2012. Obama’s larger point was that governments helped create success by building roads, bridges, and the foundations for the internet. But his opponent at that time, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, seized on the comment as evidence that Obama didn’t appreciate small business.

Still, optimism doesn’t automatically translate into more spending or jobs. Small-business hiring has slowed in the past year as the unemployment rate has fallen to nearly an 18-year low. Larger firms are better able to attract workers in a tight labor market because they typically can offer higher pay and more benefits.

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HASSETT: “And I think that if anyone were to assert that the capital spending boom that we’re seeing right now was a continuation of the trend that President Trump inherited, then, well, they wouldn’t get a high grade in graduate school for that assertion.”

THE FACTS: It’s true that companies are investing much more in buildings, computers and other capital goods than they were in the last two years of the Obama administration. And some of that additional investment may have been spurred by the Trump administration’s corporate tax cut.

But another reason for the revitalization of business spending has been a turnaround in oil prices. Oil prices plunged in 2014 and 2015 from over $100 a barrel to roughly $30 a barrel in early 2016. They have since doubled to $67 a barrel. Those swings alternatively dampened investment in drilling rigs and other heavy machinery and helped send that spending higher.

Oil- and gas-related investment accounted for about 40 percent of the growth in business investment in the April-June quarter this year.

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Online:

White House charts: https://bit.ly/2CI6twl

Contact Chris Rugaber on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/ChrisRugaber

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Trump’s fabrications about jobs, economy and other topics

September 10, 2018September 10, 2018 by HOPE YEN

President Donald Trump. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Eager to dismiss his critics, President Donald Trump is fabricating the circumstances regarding jobs, the economy and the social safety net.

He insists that Social Security and Medicare are becoming stronger under his watch when the most recent government report shows the financial condition of both programs worsening. On the economy, his claims of spurring the strongest U.S. growth ever fall way short.

The statements were among varied misrepresentations from the White House and in hearings for his Supreme Court nominee, coming in a remarkable week after an anonymous senior official went public about an effort within the administration to thwart his agenda. Trump also faces the special counsel’s continuing Russia investigation, fewer than 60 days before November’s midterm elections.

A look at the rhetoric and how it compares with reality:

MEDICARE AND SOCIAL SECURITY

TRUMP: “We’re saving Social Security. The Democrats will destroy Social Security. We’re saving Medicare. The Democrats want to destroy Medicare. …We will keep it going. We’re making it stronger. We’re making Social Security stronger.” — remarks Wednesday.

TRUMP, promoting Montana Republican Matt Rosendale’s Senate campaign: “I’m going to protect your Social Security. We’re going to take care of your Social Security. Matt Rosendale is going to make sure we’re not touching your Social Security and your Medicare is only going one way. That’s stronger.” — Montana rally Thursday.

THE FACTS: Trump hasn’t made Medicare and Social Security stronger.

The government’s annual trustees reports on the programs released in June shows the financial condition of both worsening significantly since last year. The projected insolvency for Social Security stayed unchanged — in 2034 — but Medicare’s moved three years closer, to 2026.

Both programs also will start tapping their reserves this year, meaning that income from payroll taxes and interest earned by the Social Security and Medicare trust funds will no longer cover costs. That threshold was still a few years away in last year’s report. As a result, Social Security and Medicare will need a $416 billion transfer from the government’s general revenues this year, when the federal deficit is already rising.

Last year’s Republican tax bill, which cut taxes on Social Security benefits, helped exacerbate the shortfall. So did the Trump-supported repeal of the individual mandate in so-called Obamacare. The repeal promises to increase the number of people without health insurance and therefore Medicare payments for uncompensated medical care.

Trump campaigned on a promise not to cut Social Security or Medicare, but he hasn’t offered a blueprint for either program. Democrats want to expand the social safety net by spending more.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has argued that tax cuts, rolling back regulations and better trade agreements could boost economic growth and help stabilize Medicare and Social Security. But nonpartisan government experts who produced the annual Social Security assessment didn’t seem to accept that, forecasting “sustained moderate economic growth.”

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TRADE

TRUMP: “‘Ford has abruptly killed a plan to sell a Chinese-made small vehicle in the U.S. because of the prospect of higher U.S. Tariffs.’ CNBC. This is just the beginning. This car can now be BUILT IN THE U.S.A. and Ford will pay no tariffs!” — tweet Sunday.

THE FACTS: It’s not true that Trump’s taxes on Chinese imports will now mean the Focus Active can be built in the U.S.

Citing Trump’s new tariffs, Ford on Aug. 31 said it was dropping plans to ship the hatchback vehicle to the United States from China.

But Ford said in a statement Sunday “it would not be profitable to build the Focus Active in the U.S.,” given forecast yearly sales below 50,000. For now, that means Ford simply won’t sell the vehicle in the United States.

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ECONOMY

TRUMP: “We are breaking all Jobs and Economic Records.” — tweet Saturday.

TRUMP: “The Economy is booming like never before, Jobs are at Historic Highs.” — tweet Thursday.

THE FACTS: The economy, though healthy, has been in better shape at many times in the past.

Growth reached 4.2 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter. That’s the best in the past four years. So far, the economy is growing at a modest rate compared with previous economic expansions. In the late 1990s, growth topped 4 percent for four straight years, from 1997 through 2000. In the 1980s expansion, growth even reached 7.2 percent in 1984.

The unemployment rate of 3.9 percent is strong but it’s not at the best point ever. It is near an 18-year low. The all-time low came in 1953, when unemployment fell to 2.5 percent during the Korean War. Meanwhile, a greater percentage of Americans held jobs in 2000 than now.

As a whole, the economy is in its 10th year of growth, a recovery that began under President Barack Obama, who inherited the Great Recession. The data show that the falling unemployment rate and gains in home values reflect the duration of the recovery, rather than any major changes made since 2017 by the Trump administration.

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2016 ELECTION

TRUMP: “The Dems have tried every trick in the playbook-call me everything under the sun. But if I’m all of those terrible things, how come I beat them so badly, 306-223?” — tweet Saturday.

THE FACTS: For the record, Trump misstates the Electoral College vote in his 2016 presidential race against Democrat Hillary Clinton. The official count was 304 to 227, according to an Associated Press tally of the electoral votes in every state.

Clinton won the popular vote, receiving nearly 2.9 million more votes than Trump after racking up more lopsided victories in big states such as New York and California, according to election data compiled by AP. But she lost the presidency due to Trump’s winning margin in the Electoral College, which came after he narrowly won less populous Midwestern states including Michigan and Wisconsin.

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‘FAKE NEWS’ MEDIA

TRUMP: “Isn’t it a shame that someone can write an article or book, totally make up stories and form a picture of a person that is literally the exact opposite of the fact, and get away with it without retribution or cost. Don’t know why Washington politicians don’t change libel laws?” — tweet Wednesday.

TRUMP, addressing GOP Sens. John Thune and Mike Rounds of South Dakota: “We have lousy libel laws… ‘Hey Mike and John, could you do me a favor? Create some libel laws, that when people say stuff bad about you, you can sue them and if you’re right, you win.’” — remarks Friday at fundraising event in South Dakota.

THE FACTS: He misstates libel law in claiming that someone can “totally make up stories” or freely write “fake news” without penalty.

Under defamation laws, people can bring a lawsuit for slander or libel if they believe someone’s statements have injured their reputation. For public officials such as Trump, they must meet a higher legal bar than ordinary people due to First Amendment guarantees of a free press and show the statements were made with “actual malice.” That means a publication is at risk by acting with reckless disregard for the truth.

Trump often pledges to make it easier for people to sue for defamation, typically after the publication of books or news articles that present an unflattering portrait of the White House. But he has little influence to change the laws.

Libel laws are set at the state level, which the president and Congress do not have authority to change. Any attempt to loosen the laws would likely run afoul of the First Amendment, barring a successful Supreme Court challenge or constitutional amendment.

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TREASON

TRUMP, questioning whether one of his senior officials acted illegally about an administration effort to thwart his agenda: “TREASON?” — tweet Wednesday.

THE FACTS: Not treason. The official who wrote anonymously in The New York Times about the “quiet resistance” against Trump is surely disloyal to the president but not a traitor in the legal sense.

Treason occurs when a U.S. citizen, or a noncitizen on U.S. territory, wages war against the country or provides material support, not just sympathy, to a declared enemy of the United States.

For instance, in the Cold War case of Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, who were executed for giving atomic secrets to Russia, the Rosenbergs were convicted of espionage, not treason, because the U.S. and Russia were not officially at war. No one has been convicted of treason since the aftermath of World War II, few have been through history and no one has been executed for that crime, says Carlton F.W. Larson, a University of California law professor who has a book coming on treason.

In 2006, the Bush administration brought a treason indictment against Adam Gadahn, an American who authorities say became an operative and spokesman for al-Qaida abroad. The Obama administration said he was killed in a 2015 counterterrorism operation in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region.

Treason is addressed in the Constitution as part of an effort by the framers to prevent the government from using it as a reason to suppress political speech, said J. Richard Broughton, associate dean at University of Detroit Mercy and a member of the Republican National Lawyers Association. Congress has little if any power to change the definition and the executive branch can only bring charges in extremely limited cases.

Trump’s opponents have used “treason” loosely as the special counsel investigates contacts between the Trump campaign and Russia, and it is thrown around widely in the public discourse by all sides.

Trump is using the word loosely now.

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KAVANAUGH HEARINGS

DEMOCRATIC SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR of Minnesota, asking about Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s views on the scope of a president’s executive power: “I’m asking about your position that you stated in this law review article that a president should be not subject to investigations while in office. You’re only saying that they should be subject to investigation as part of an impeachment (proceeding by Congress) and that there’s no other investigation that could occur? Is that fair?” — Senate hearing Wednesday.

KAVANAUGH: “No. … On criminal investigation and prosecution, I did not take a position on the constitutionality. Period.”

THE FACTS: His claim is highly questionable, based on his past writings.

In a 2009 Minnesota Law Review article, Kavanaugh cast doubt on whether a president should be subject to what he described as “time-consuming” criminal investigations, cautioning that it could distract the nation’s chief executive from doing the job. He wrote in a footnote that “a serious constitutional question exists regarding whether a President can be criminally indicted and tried while in office.”

A decade earlier, Kavanaugh wrote that the Constitution seems to dictate that “congressional investigation must take place in lieu of criminal investigation when the President is the subject of investigation, and that criminal prosecution can occur only after the President has left office.”

Special counsel Robert Mueller has been investigating whether the Trump campaign coordinated with Russia during the 2016 campaign to tip the election in his favor, and whether Trump obstructed justice such as by firing FBI director James Comey.

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DEMOCRATIC SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN of California: “In the 1950s and 60s, the two decades before Roe, deaths from illegal abortions in this country ran between 200,000 and 1.2 million. That’s according to the Guttmacher Institute.” — Senate hearing Wednesday.

THE FACTS: That’s wrong, and she corrected herself Friday. Known deaths from illegal abortion were much smaller. The California senator conflated the estimated number of women who had an illegal abortion with the number who died from it, according to the research she cites.

The Guttmacher Institute, which supports abortion rights, cites estimates in a 2003 report that 200,000 to 1.2 million illegal abortions were performed in the 1950s and 1960s in the U.S. The report says the number of deaths from illegal abortion dropped from just under 1,700 in 1940 to just over 300 by 1950 and a little under 200 by 1965. The Supreme Court established a constitutional right to abortion in the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision.

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RUSSIA INVESTIGATION

TRUMP ATTORNEY RUDY GIULIANI, citing a “60 day run-up to 2018 elections”: “If Mueller wants to show he’s not partisan, then issue a report on collusion and obstruction. They will show President Trump did nothing wrong.” — tweet Aug. 25.

THE FACTS: He’s wrong in suggesting there is a 60-day cutoff date before the Nov. 6 midterm elections, which came Friday, for Mueller to wrap up the Russia investigation.

Trump and his allies including Giulani often cite a Justice Department policy on the issue. But in fact, no written policy setting a deadline exists and Mueller can continue the probe and issue new indictments. He also has no time constraints regarding finishing or releasing the findings of his investigation.

The only thing that’s changed is that Labor Day kicked off high election season in the battle for control of the House and Senate. So any action by Mueller between now and the Nov. 6 voting risks being seen as an effort to affect the outcome.

The Justice Department does have guidelines about investigations in advance of an election, which have been interpreted over the past decade to mean that investigators, if possible, should avoid taking specific actions — such as indicting candidates or raiding their office — in the run-up to an election.

“Law enforcement officers and prosecutors may never select the timing of investigative steps or criminal charges for the purpose of affecting any election, or for the purpose of giving an advantage or disadvantage to any candidate or political party,” one such memo from 2012 states.

But the policy does not impose a specific cutoff date for investigations before an election.

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Associated Press writers Paul Wiseman, Christopher Rugaber, Josh Boak, Cal Woodward, Eric Tucker and Laurie Kellman contributed to this report.

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Fact Check: Trump lies about economy, treason

September 8, 2018September 8, 2018 by HOPE YEN

President Donald Trump responds to a reporter’s question during an event with sheriffs in the East Room of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

President Donald Trump inaccurately claimed the strongest economic record ever as he capped a week featuring varied misrepresentations from the White House and in hearings for his Supreme Court nominee.

A look at recent rhetoric and how it compares with the facts:

ECONOMY

TRUMP: “The Economy is booming like never before, Jobs are at Historic Highs.” — tweet Thursday.

THE FACTS: The economy, though healthy, has been in better shape at many times in the past.

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‘FAKE NEWS’ MEDIA

THE FACTS: He misstates libel law in claiming that someone can “totally make up stories” or freely write “fake news” without penalty.

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TREASON

TRUMP, questioning whether one of his senior officials acted illegally about an administration effort to thwart his agenda: “TREASON?” — tweet Wednesday.

Treason occurs when a U.S. citizen, or a noncitizen on U.S. territory, wages war against the country or provides material support, not just sympathy, to a declared enemy of the United States.

Trump is using the word loosely now.

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KAVANAUGH HEARINGS

KAVANAUGH: “No. … On criminal investigation and prosecution, I did not take a position on the constitutionality. Period.”

THE FACTS: His claim is highly questionable, based on his past writings.

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RUSSIA INVESTIGATION

THE FACTS: He’s wrong in suggesting there is a 60-day cutoff date before the Nov. 6 midterm elections, which came Friday, for Mueller to wrap up the Russia investigation.

But the policy does not impose a specific cutoff date for investigations before an election.

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Associated Press writers Christopher Rugaber, Josh Boak, Cal Woodward, Eric Tucker and Laurie Kellman contributed to this report.

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Fact Check: Another week of Trump’s fiction

September 2, 2018September 2, 2018 by <a href="https://www.capitolhillblue.com/node/byline/hope-yen-and-paul-wiseman" rel="tag">HOPE YEN and PAUL WISEMAN</a>

President Donald Trump talks on the phone with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

President Donald Trump is playing loose with the facts in his exuberance to push through a trade agreement with Mexico.

He insists the deal reached this past week between the United States and Mexico to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement is “one of the largest trade deals” ever. It’s not.

And in an effort to pressure Canada to join the reimagined trading bloc, or dismiss Canada as irrelevant if it doesn’t, Trump also wrongly suggests that Mexico is a bigger and more important trading partner.

The trade comments came in a week of outright fiction in which Trump also kept asserting that Mexico will pay for his long-promised wall along the southwest border despite Mexico’s statements to the contrary; falsely accused Google of shunning his State of the Union address while promoting Barack Obama’s; and cited high poll ratings for himself that don’t appear to exist.

A sampling of the claims and the reality behind them:

TRADE

TRUMP: “This is one of the largest trade deals ever made. Maybe the largest trade deal ever made.” — phone call Monday with Mexican President Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto.

THE FACTS: Not even close. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, negotiated by the Obama administration, included the three NAFTA partners — United States, Canada and Mexico — plus Japan and eight other Pacific Rim countries. Trump withdrew the United States from the pact in his third day in office.

Even the TPP shrinks in comparison to Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. Concluded in 1994, the round created the World Trade Organization and was signed by 123 countries. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston found the following year that the WTO’s initial membership accounted for more than 90 percent of global economic output.

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TRUMP: “We made the deal with Mexico. And I think it’s a very — deal. We’re starting negotiations with Canada, pretty much immediately … It’s going to be a — it’s a smaller segment, as you know. Mexico is a very large trading partner.” — phone call Monday with Peña Nieto.

THE FACTS: Trump appears to be suggesting that Mexico is a bigger U.S. trading partner than Canada. That’s not the case. America’s two-way trade — exports plus imports — came to $680 billion with Canada last year. That’s compared with $622 billion with Mexico.

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TRUMP: “I smile at Senators and others talking about how good free trade is for the U.S. What they don’t say is that we lose Jobs and over 800 Billion Dollars a year on really dumb Trade Deals….and these same countries Tariff us to death.” — tweet Tuesday.

THE FACTS: The $800 billion is a reference to America’s trade deficit last year. But Trump exaggerates the size of the gap between what the U.S. sells and what it buys from the rest of the world. The trade deficit in goods and services came to $552 billion in 2017. The United States ran an $807 billion deficit in goods such as cars and machinery. But Trump ignored America’s $255 billion surplus in services such as education and finance.

Mainstream economists also take issue with Trump’s assertion that trade deficits amount to a loss for the United States. The money didn’t just vanish. In exchange for what they spent on imports, Americans got the benefit of owning everything from made-in-China iPhones to French wine.

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BORDER WALL

TRUMP: “The wall will be paid for very easily by Mexico. It will ultimately be paid for by Mexico.” — remarks Tuesday.

THE FACTS: Not according to Mexico. Immediately after Trump’s remarks, Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray tweeted to stress, once again, that his country won’t foot the bill for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Videgaray wrote that his country has been “absolutely clear” that Mexico “will NEVER pay for a wall.”

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GOOGLE

VIDEO TWEETED BY TRUMP: “For years, Google promoted President Obama’s State of the Union on its homepage. When President Trump took office, Google stopped.” — tweet Wednesday.

THE FACTS: The video is incorrect as to Trump.

There’s no dispute that Google promoted Obama’s State of the Union speeches from 2012 to 2016, according to webpages captured by the Wayback Machine, an internet archive site.

In a statement, Google said it has not historically promoted “the first address to Congress by a new president, which is technically not a State of the Union address,” so it didn’t do so in either 2009, when Obama first took office, or 2017, Trump’s first year as president.

For 2018, several web pages captured by Wayback Machine show the Google homepage advertising a livestream of Trump’s speech with the words: “Live! Watch President Trump’s State of the Union address on YouTube.”

The archive site shows the webpages in Greenwich Mean Time, which is several hours ahead of the Eastern time zone in the U.S. That means the relevant images of the Google homepage promoting Trump’s prime-time Washington speech on Jan. 30 are dated one day later, on Jan. 31, Mark Graham, director of the Wayback Machine archive site, told The Associated Press.

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RUSSIA INVESTIGATION

TRUMP: “What’s going on at @CNN is happening, to different degrees, at other networks – with @NBCNews being the worst … When Lester Holt got caught fudging my tape on Russia, they were hurt badly!” — tweet Thursday.

THE FACTS: There is no evidence of the NBC interview having been “fudged” or doctored in any way, and the White House didn’t respond to requests regarding what Trump was referring to. NBC declined to comment.

In the interview, Trump referred in part to “this Russia thing” as a consideration in his decision to fire Comey. Special counsel Robert Mueller is investigating possible obstruction of justice in the Russia probe.

It’s possible Trump is frustrated that other comments from the same interview may have received less attention.

Minutes after he acknowledged that “this Russia thing” was on his mind when he fired Comey, Trump also acknowledged that he knew the decision to terminate him might actually prolong the investigation. In fact it did, with Mueller investigating the firing for potential obstruction of justice.

His lawyers and other supporters have contended that that sentiment is actually helpful for the president, suggesting he couldn’t have been trying to obstruct the investigation by doing something that he knew would actually draw it out longer.

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CLINTON EMAILS

TRUMP: “Report just out: ‘China hacked Hillary Clinton’s private Email Server.’ — tweet Tuesday.

TRUMP: “Hillary Clinton’s Emails, many of which are Classified Information, got hacked by China. Next move better be by the FBI & DOJ or, after all of their other missteps (Comey, McCabe, Strzok, Page, Ohr, FISA, Dirty Dossier etc.), their credibility will be forever gone!” — tweet Wednesday.

THE FACTS: Trump’s own law enforcement agencies dispute that.

Trump appears to be citing a story by the right-leaning Daily Caller publication, which reported that a Chinese-owned company in Washington, D.C., area hacked Clinton’s email server.

But FBI and Justice Department officials have said publicly that there was no evidence Clinton’s server was hacked by a foreign power.

A June report from the Justice Department’s inspector general on the FBI’s handling of the Clinton investigation said FBI specialists did not find evidence that the server had been hacked, with one forensics agent saying he felt “fairly confident that there wasn’t an intrusion.”

An FBI official said Wednesday after the Daily Caller story and Trump tweet that the “FBI has not found any evidence the servers were compromised.”

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POLL RATINGS

TRUMP: “Over 90% approval rating for your all time favorite (I hope) President within the Republican Party and 52% overall. This despite all of the made up stories by the Fake News Media trying endlessly to make me look as bad and evil as possible. Look at the real villains please!” — tweet Sunday.

THE FACTS: He’s wrong in regard to polls citing his overall job ratings.

The Associated Press couldn’t find any evidence of a recent poll that put Trump’s approval at 52 percent, and the White House and his re-election campaign didn’t respond to requests for specifics.

Polls are a snapshot of public opinion at the moment they are taken. Job approval can — and has in recent history — vary during a president’s term.

Since his inauguration, however, Trump’s job approval has been remarkably consistent, in the high 30s and low 40s, in polls from various media organizations and other pollsters.

The latest AP-NORC poll, taken this month, finds Trump’s approval among American adults at 38 percent. Some other recent polls measure his approval in the low to mid-40s.

On his level of support among Republicans, Trump is correct that they broadly approve of his work as president. In the same AP-NORC poll that found 38 percent of adults approving of the president, 76 percent of Republicans and those who lean toward the GOP said they approved of Trump. Some polls have put that level of support as high as 90 percent.

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Associated Press writers Eric Tucker, Jill Colvin and Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this report.

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Trump lies about polls on his performance

August 29, 2018 by HOPE YEN

President Donald Trump boasts that 52 percent of Americans approve of his job performance, but no known poll exists showing such high numbers. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

President Donald Trump is exaggerating the numbers when citing his overall job approval ratings.

In a tweet Sunday, Trump boasted of poll numbers that showed 52 percent of all Americans approved of his performance in office, in spite of the “fake news media.”

No known poll exists showing such high ratings.

A look at the claim:

THE FACTS: He’s wrong in regard to polls citing his overall job ratings.

The Associated Press couldn’t find any evidence of a recent poll that put Trump’s approval at 52 percent, and the White House and his re-election campaign didn’t immediately respond to requests for specifics.

Polls are a snapshot of public opinion at the moment they are taken, and job approval can — and has in recent history — vary during a president’s term. George W. Bush, for example, had approval ratings that reached into the high 80s and low 90s in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks, and dropped into the high 20s and low 30s toward the end of his time in office.

Since his inauguration, however, Trump’s job approval has been remarkably consistent — in the high 30s and low 40s — in polls from various media organizations and other pollsters.

The latest AP-NORC poll, taken this month, finds Trump’s approval among American adults at 38 percent. Some other recent polls measure his approval in the low to mid-40s.

That fits with the pattern of his presidency, in which Trump has generally had widespread support from Republicans. Some polls have put that level of support as high as 90 percent.

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Associated Press writer Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this report.

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