Trump may or may not declare a national emergency tonight. I think he really wants to do this because this is in his nature, but White House lawyers and advisors may hold sway and check his natural impulses to do anything to get what he wants. I think it will be far more telling if he doesn’t declare a national emergency than if he does. It may demonstrate that at least on a few occasions he can act rationally.
Knowing that his final decision may rest on what he hears on Fox News minutes before the cameras roll, assuming his advisors want to prevent him from making the declaration, they would be well advised to keep him away from a phone or television.
I expect the Democrats will be allowed by all the networks to offer their rebuttal which may be more interesting that Trump’s announcement because it will show how well they respond in real-time to the lies Trump will use in his speech whether or not he declares the emergency. Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer will deliver the response to whatever Trump says tonight.
Since others are addressing the ramifications of declaring a national emergency when none exists I thought I’d see what was on his twittering mind this morning.
Here are Trump’s Tweets in order:
Economic numbers looking REALLY good. Can you imagine if I had long-term ZERO interest rates to play with like the past administration, rather than the rapidly raised normalized rates we have today. That would have been SO EASY! Still, markets up BIG since 2016 Election!
This shows that Trump is quite aware of the reaction to the reports about the stock market. Almost exactly a year ago CNN reported that “President Donald Trump has spared no opportunity to brag about the surging stock market in recent days. He has a point. It took the market almost 100 years to reach 5,000. It’s grown more than 5,000 points in Trump’s first year in office.” It is obvious what he is doing in this Tweet: distracting from the facts that the precipitous drops in the market and its volatility has many investors nervous.
This was his Tweet from January last year:
Dow goes from 18,589 on November 9, 2016, to 25,075 today, for a new all-time Record. Jumped 1000 points in last 5 weeks, Record fastest 1000 point move in history. This is all about the Make America Great Again agenda! Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. Six trillion dollars in value created!
Next, he moves onto something which he can spin as good news, comments which he managed to find from the president of a W. Virginia local United Steel Workers chapter. I can’t find the actual source of this quote to see where Trump came up with it.
“The President is the biggest and best supporter of the Steel Industry in many years. We are now doing really well. The Tariffs let us compete. Was unfair that the Steel Industry lost its jobs to unfair trade laws. Very positive outcome.” Mark Glyptis, United Steelworkers
Glyptis has been a Trump supporter for some time as this article from a March, 2018 W. Virgina Paper shows.
Next, on the subject of trade:
Talks with China are going very well!
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that trade talks with China were going very well and that weakness in the Chinese economy gave Beijing a reason to work toward a deal.
U.S. officials are meeting with their counterparts in Beijing this week for the first face-to-face talks since Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in December agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has roiled international markets.
Trump imposed import tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods to pressure Beijing to change its practices on issues ranging from industrial subsidies to hacking. China retaliated with tariffs of its own.
All this suggests is that it is a question of “who blinked first?” Trump will say that his America first trade policy and China’s weak economy caused them to blink. But did they? Hard to say since China’s retaliated. Also consider this from CNBC: “More stock market carnage could force Trump to make a China trade deal, expert says.”
Many of the ongoing issues Washington has had with Beijing have been going on for many years, Dutt (a professor at INSEAD an international business school, ranked one of the best in the world) said, adding that a lot of them are key to China’s national economic development strategy.
The most likely outcome is that “China gives some minor concessions as it has done in the past, either on the technology transfer or the intellectual property, or also market access for goods and energy,” he said. “That allows the Trump administration to declare victory and move on.”
I won’t give Trump’s trade war credit for any success for improving economic relations with China since I am not an expert, through from what I have read it appears that if things to get better it will have been because the time was ripe and China was ready.
Trump’s final Tweet of the morning was made at 6:42. It was about Clemson routing Alabama to win its second national title in three years. Of course Trump was thinking about his own glory as he can hardly wait for the Oval Office photo-ops.
Congratulations to a truly great football team, the Clemson Tigers, on an incredible win last night against a powerful Alabama team. A big win also for the Great State of South Carolina. Look forward to seeing the team, and their brilliant coach, for the second time at the W.H.
Presumably Trump wasn’t so worried about the national emergency that he missed watching football on television last night.
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