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Explaining The Pollster-Dashboard Win Probabilities

On Thursday, I described an important update in Pollster’s trend lines. We now use a statistical technique known as Kalman Filtering as the underlying engine that drives the trend lines.…

MN-Gov: 41% Dayton (D), 34% Emmer (R), 13% Horner (I) (Star Tribune 10/18-21)

PSRAI for the Star Tribune 10/18-21/10; 999 likely voters, 3.9% margin of error Mode: Live telephone interviews Star Tribune release Minnesota 2010 Governor 41% Dayton (D), 34% Emmer (R), 13%…

Jeffrey Smith: The Biggest Election Showdown is WHERE?

Michael Pollan said “For the food movement,” this may be “the most important election this year.” Slow Food chef Kurt Michael Friese named it, The Most Important Race You Never…

PA-Gov: 50% Corbett (R), 45% Onorato (D) (Rasmussen 10/21)

Rasmussen 10/21/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of ewrror Mode: Automated phone Rasmussen release Pennsylvania 2010 Governor 50% Corbett (R), 45% Onorato (D) (chart) Jump to comments From The Huffington…

Japan ruling party candidate suffers by-election loss

TOKYO (Reuters) – A senior member of Japan’s opposition Liberal Democratic Party defeated a ruling party candidate in a lower house by-election, in the latest sign of voter dissatisfaction with…

Stanley Kutler: THE TEA PARTY: DUPED SERVANTS OF POWER

We are witnessing, we are told, a groundswell of anger from a spontaneous, grass-roots movement against the president, Congress, Democrats, socialists (are commies extinct?), the debt, higher taxes, the “takeover”…

MD-Gov: 52% O’Malley (D), 38% Ehrlich (R) (Baltimore Sun 10/15-20)

OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun 10/15-20/10; 798 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error Mode: Live telephone interviews Baltimore Sun release Maryland 2010 Governor 52% O’Malley (D), 38% Ehrlich (R) (chart)…

FL-Sen: 41% Rubio (R), 26% Crist (i), 20% Meek (D) (Ipsos 10/19)

Ipsos, for St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 10/15-19/10; 577 likely voters, 4.1% margin of error Mode: Live phone interview (Miami Herald article) Florida 2010 Senate 41% Rubio (R), 26%…

NY-Sen: 56% Gillibrand (D), 38% DioGuardi (R) (Marist 10/18-20)

Marist 10/18-20/10; 505 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error Mode: Live telephone interviews Marist release New York 2010 Senate (A) 63% Schumer (D), 35% Townsend (R) (chart) 2010 Senate (B)…

Companies That Received Bailout Money Giving Generously To Candidates

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) was a fierce critic of the federal bailout of General Motors and Chrysler last year, saying he “cannot ask the American taxpayer to subsidize…