Hillary and Hispanics in Texas

The Washington Post reports the following:
“Supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are worried that convoluted delegate rules in Texas could water down the impact of strong support for her among Hispanic voters there, creating a new obstacle for her in the must-win presidential primary contest. ”

Here is the deal. If Hillary supporters are counting on Hispanic voters in Texas to pull out this election, they are out of touch with Texas.

In 2003, I made a spreadsheet that detailed the voting record of every county in Texas during every major election since 1992. It broke down the counties by population in the following categories: ethnicity, age, voter registration, parties, etc.

I did this because I wanted to understand how people in Texas were voting. Since then I have kept it updated with every major election cycle. It consistently shows one very clear fact. Hispanics vote the least of every ethnic group in Texas.

That’s right. Only one in 6 registered hispanic voters regularly vote. In presidential elections it goes up to 1 in 5. And we are only talking about registered hispanic voters. For every 1 registered there are 3-4 that aren’t registered.

Additionally, Texas hispanics as a rule have not been a substantial political force in Texas. This is not to say we don’t have hispanic leaders. It’s just that hispanics have not as a rule of being as politically active as in other states. This may be attributed to the lack of Unions in Texas.

Overall, I can most likely count on both hands the number of counties Hillary might win based solely on the Hispanic vote. How her team translates this into a victory I’m not quite sure. But it appears that her supporters are looking for a way to do just that from this article.

Not only are they betting the farm on a constituency notorious in our state for not voting, they are ignoring a substantial electorate, the Katrinites.

This group equals between 250,000-500,000 people still living in Texas. This group are traditionally Democratic voters and this will be their first presidential election since being displaced from their homes in New Orleans. We have seen significant voter registration from this group since 2006. Personally, I believe they will make the difference in which direction Texas goes in this election, NOT THE HISPANICS.

Texas is more like Georgia in its electorate than California. Perhaps someone should mention this to the Clinton supporters.