Talks to avert a potentially catastrophic U.S. debt default resume on Tuesday after signs Republicans might soften their stance over a key obstacle to a deal with Democrats, but hopes for a breakthrough remain slim.
Vice President Joe Biden leads senior lawmakers in their third round of negotiations to lift the $14.3 trillion U.S. debt limit before an August 2 deadline for action.
Top Republicans say Biden’s talks are laying vital groundwork for an eventual compromise on measures to reign in growth in the U.S. budget deficit, but President Barack Obama will ultimately be required to seal the deal.
No one expects anything to happen fast and the White House was not bothering to pretend otherwise.
“We have a lot of work ahead of us and quite a few weeks of discussions,” Jacob Lew, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, told The Economic Club of Washington in remarks at a dinner on Monday evening.
Attention has shifted to Biden’s group after separate discussions among a group of six senators stalled last week.
Failure to increase the limit could force the United States to renege on its debt obligations, risking devastating fallout for the U.S. and world economy.
Republicans say they are open to a compromise on their plan to slash healthcare costs to help trim trillions of dollars from the U.S. budget deficit, in return for supporting a higher debt ceiling.
Democrats, led by Obama, say they too want to control spending, although they have criticized cuts proposed by Republicans as too drastic.
But Democrats also want to boost revenue by raising taxes, which Republicans flatly reject as part of a debt deal, a clear warning that financial markets should expect negotiations to push right up to the brink of default before a deal is done.
“I don’t think the most brilliant negotiators, with the best of intentions, can resolve this problem,” said Scott Lilly, a former congressional budget specialist and now a senior fellow with the Center for American Progress.
HEALTHCARE IN FOCUS
Republicans want deficit savings to match the amount the administration wants to raise the borrowing limit, and the U.S. Treasury sees a $2 trillion increase in the debt ceiling needed to last through the November 2012 elections.
The Tuesday session, which will be held on Capitol Hill, is expected to focus on healthcare spending, according to a source close to the discussions.
Analysts at the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimate that savings to the U.S. budget deficit of between $25 billion and $130 billion could be achieved over 10 years by increasing the costs to people in the Medicare healthcare program for the elderly.
Biden’s group has initially focused on areas where the two sides can most easily agree.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that these areas could yield deficit savings of between $1 and $2 trillion over the next decade.
Cantor said Biden’s group was only laying the groundwork for final talks between Obama, House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, and Senate leaders.
“We are engaging in these discussions right now in the Biden commission to really understand where both sides are,” Cantor told reporters on Monday.
The United States reached the congressionally mandated $14.3 trillion limit on its borrowing on May 16.
Administration officials are using special accounting measures to avoid a default for now but they warn their leeway to do that will run out on August 2.
(Additional reporting by Andy Sullivan and Rick Cowan)
Copyright © 2011 Reuters