Dan Dorfman: Obama Big Betting Favorite for 2012

Don’t write off Barack Obama just yet. He may be politically wounded, but he’s far from politically dead

In fact, despite his skidding approval numbers, the furor over his inability to resolve the jobs mess and the whipping he took in the mid-term elections, leading a number of political pundits to predict he’ll be a one-term president, lo and behold, Obama has emerged as the odds-on favorite to recapture the White House in 2012.

That’s the assessment of the United Kingdom’s William Hill, one of the world’s largest and most influential bookmakers. After a week of brisk betting on the U.S.’s 2012 presidential outcome following the recent elections, the bookmaker has established Obama as the man to beat and rates him as even money to reign again for another four years.

What makes this outlook especially noteworthy is that Obama is now the top dog and by no means an underdog.

What’s more, William Hill boasts a pretty imposing record in picking winners in the U.S. presidential sweepstakes. “We normally get it right,” says Rupert Adams, director of the bookmaker’s media operations, who tells me the firm’s favorites win about 80% to 90% of the time.

The national election, of course, is still two years away and the unexpected, such as a deep economic downturn or another attack on American shores, could easily alter the course of events and the favorites can always change. But as of now, Adams says, no potential candidate comes even close to Obama in the betting odds.

Indicative of this, Obama’s closest rival in the betting on who will win the 2012 presidential race is distant runner-up Mitt Romney at 7 to 1.

Following Romney, three names are quoted at 14 to 1: Sarah Palin, Indiana governor Mitch Daniels and South Dakota senator John Thune.

Speaking of Romney and Palin, some Wall Streeters are abuzz with an unusual bet made between a top official of a buyout firm and one of the country’s wealthiest hedge fund managers. In brief, one is wagering Romney will be the Republican standard-bearer in 2012; the other is saying it will be Palin. If either fails to run, the bet, which was made last Saturday, is null and void.

The loser provides the winner with an all expense-paid 10-day summer vacation for he and his family in the Hamptons at a cost not to exceed $200,000. One participant in the bet, which has I.R.S. ramifications, confirmed the wager on the promise of anonymity for both names.

Rounding out the odds on William Hill’s list of presidential candidates are Mike Huckabee at 18 to 1; Hillary Clinton, 22 to 1; Newt Gingrich and Minnesota governor Tim Pawlentry, both at 25 to 1; Missisippi governor Haley Barbour, Joe Biden and Louisiana governor Bobby Jindall, each quoted at 33 to 1; Ron Paul, 50 to 1; Mike Bloomberg, 100 to 1; and American pop singer Lady Gaga, 500 to 1.

Another obvious question: who will be the G.O.P.’s presidential nominee?

Here again, for those political bettors, William Hill has come up with a list of names and their odds.

Romney takes the top spot at 11 to 4 (meaning you put up $4 to win $11 for a total return of $15). Palin takes second spot at 5 to 1, followed by Thune, 6 to 1, Daniels, 13 to 2, Pawlenty, 8 to 1, and Gingrich and Huckabee, 10 to 1.

Rounding out this group are Barbour, 14 to 1, Indiana Congressman Mike Pence, 16 to 1, and Jindall, 22 to 1.

If you figure you know the answer and you’re temped to bet a few bucks at William Hill, forget it if you have an American address. It’s illegal.

What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com.

From The Huffington Post

8 Responses to "Dan Dorfman: Obama Big Betting Favorite for 2012"

  1. Mark  November 8, 2010 at 9:06 pm

    I’d take odds on a few of those republicans in a heart beat. Obama will be toast if the economy doesn’t recover and if it does he’s at best a 40-60 bet.

  2. Carl Nemo  November 9, 2010 at 12:55 am

    “lo and behold, Obama has emerged as the odds-on favorite to recapture the White House in 2012.” …extract from article

    It’s somewhat ironic that 2012 is the election year when one of the biggest disappointments in U.S. presidential succession is competing against some huge odds that he’s possibly the last president of the U.S. along with a host of leaders and people of the earth in the event something catastrophic happens such as inferred by the Mayan calendar; e.g., possibly a massive solar flare hitting the earth directly, a highly eccentric, undetected asteroid smacks into the earth or a super volcanic event in Yellowstone, a killer plague outbreak, final and total national insolvency with debt repudiation as the only option; ie, “stiff the banker” and citizens of their benefits, pensions etc. So one must see his reelection as a win/lose outcome. He seemingly is the right man along with his chosen entourage to confront a cataclysmic time in the earth’s history. Possibly there is cosmic justice. / : |

    Carl Nemo **==

  3. Guardhouse Lawyer  November 9, 2010 at 6:49 am

    “is competing against some huge odds that he’s possibly the last president of the U.S. along with a host of leaders and people of the earth in the event something catastrophic happens such as inferred by the Mayan calendar”

    Competing “against huge odds” based on that Mayan Calendar crap? You seriously think that? Or is this a joke?

    • Almandine  November 9, 2010 at 9:31 am

      Here we go again… ghl, the omniscient.

      • Guardhouse Lawyer  November 9, 2010 at 11:50 am

        I love you too, Al. People who subscribe to that Mayan Calendar crap are part of the lunatic fringe. I am certainly not omniscient, but I was raised in the country and I know New Age bulls++t when i smell it.

        Tell you what. I’ll pay you $50 right now in exchange for your signing over to me all of your worldly assets, collectable by me on December 22, 2012. If you are right you will have the $50 to spend now and nothing to lose since we’ll all be outta here on December 21. If I am right you are SOL. Sound like a deal?

        • Almandine  November 9, 2010 at 12:42 pm

          Once again you have grabbed at the picayunish, without grasping the bigger point, which is that any number of factors could keep “one of the biggest disappointments” – Obummer – from getting reelected. The 2012 Mayan “timing” reference being mere ironic context. To reiterate:

          “e.g., possibly a massive solar flare hitting the earth directly, a highly eccentric, undetected asteroid smacks into the earth or a super volcanic event in Yellowstone, a killer plague outbreak, final and total national insolvency with debt repudiation as the only option; ie, “stiff the banker” and citizens of their benefits, pensions etc.”

          The last item, of course, what will probably be what does the trick… not just to him, but us all.

    • Carl Nemo  November 9, 2010 at 1:29 pm

      Yo GHL,

      After some time on this site, you still don’t understand that I write for “impact”. Hell, if Dorfman can give favorable odds to Obama in 2012 for reelection, then myself or anyone else can lay odds that the inferenced Mayan calendar’s end of days predictions are true also.

      First of all what’s never explained about the Mayan calendar is that 2012 happens to be the end of a Grand Tun; ie., “long count” along with its minor cycles of years, months and days the current grand cycle, their date for ‘creation’ started August 11, 3114 BCE our current era.

      “It is widely accepted that the Long Count’s “zero”, or creation date was August 11 3114BC, and that this marked the end of a previous world and the beginning of the current one, and it is further conjectured that the end of this current thirteenth b’ak’tun will fall on the Maya date 13.0.0.0.0, or December 21 2012. ” …extract from supplied link article

      http://www.chaacreek.com/how-the-maya-calendar-works/

      “Maya scholars and contemporary Maya daykeepers and other accepted spiritual and village leaders consider it to be simply the end of one cycle of time and the beginning of another.” …extract from link

      So December 21, 2012 would be the equivalent of flipping the Mayan “long count” calendar to start a new grand cycle, nothing more, nothing less.

      Regardless of the fact that the calendar is simply that, there are things coming to a head that are sure as the sun rising in the East each day; ie., “financial Armageddon” for planet earth along with all the strife and bloodshed it will bring for all citizens except those still living in neolithic cultures who survive on the edge each day and live quite well without all the comforts and gadgetry of modern civilization.

      The ‘elect'; ie., the elected one’s will be enjoying great food, first run movies and pleasure women in the bunkers, supplied with a 10 year supply of food, fuel, etc. courtesy of the U.S. tax slaves who are now beating on the bunker doors for entry, but will no doubt be shot down like mad dogs with robot controlled chain gun fire implacements at their entries.

      What amazes me most about your rebuttals GHL, not only to myself, but others is your venomous delivery. You seem to be one angry, contentious dude 24/7/365. / : |

      Carl Nemo **==

      • Guardhouse Lawyer  November 9, 2010 at 2:23 pm

        “then myself or anyone else can lay odds that the inferenced Mayan calendar’s end of days predictions are true also.”

        Do you want a piece of the action I just offered Al?

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