It it real or is it Memorex?

President Bush’s replacement of his chief of staff may, some feel, signal that he is willing to listen to those who say he must change if his party wants to survive the mid-term elections this fall and the Presidential elections in 1988.

Other feel the changes will be few and only cosmetic and that Bush will always be Bush.

Writes Jim VandeHei in today’s Washington Post:

A few weeks ago, President Bush’s spokesman dismissed talk of an impending staff change as "inside Washington babble."

White House Chief of Staff Andrew H. Card Jr.’s resignation yesterday suggests that Bush was listening.

Through one full term and the first year of the second, a signature of this administration was the indifference — even contempt — it showed for the capital’s political and media culture, and for the endless flow of commentary and unsolicited advice that its inhabitants deliver daily to all presidents.

Bush, his advisers say, has by no means changed his view of what he derisively calls the "chattering class." But the Card move is only the latest sign that — with his presidency under the stress of low public approval ratings, an unpopular war and a stalled legislative agenda — Bush is more often deferring to the expectations of Washington conventional wisdom.

On Iraq, he has not shifted policy but has modified his message in response to legislators and GOP operatives who said he needed to more directly address the arguments of opponents instead of simply disparaging them as defeatists. On his domestic agenda — after last year proved that doubters of both parties on Capitol Hill were right when they said his planned overhaul of Social Security was far too ambitious — Bush has returned this year with a series of small proposals such as incentives for alternative energy sources.

At the same time, the president who set out five years ago to circumvent what he considered the "filter" of Washington’s mainstream media, has started having off-the-record, get-to-know-you-better chats with White House reporters.

"When you run into brick walls, you need to figure out ways around it," said a high-ranking administration official, who acknowledged that a White House that once prided itself on tuning out the views of op-ed pages and cable talk shows is now more likely to tune in. "Part of what you are seeing is some adjustment to the political realities."

These accommodations are of the sort that many presidents have made before, and Bush’s steps should not be overstated. He has not summoned a respected Capitol Hill figure to join his staff, as Ronald Reagan did when he tapped Howard Baker as his chief of staff after the Iran-contra scandal in 1987. He did not invite a well-known figure from the other party into his fold, as Bill Clinton did when he recruited commentator David Gergen to help right a stumbling presidency in 1993.

What’s more, Bush’s team well knows that making nods to inside-Washington expectations can affect its political fortunes only at the margins. As Bush himself said at a news conference last week, his "political capital" is nearly all invested in Iraq, and that war is almost certainly what will determine his political success or failure in the balance of his presidency.