Financial forecast: Doom, gloom and little growth

Economists from all sides of the political system are sounding a unified theme for the new year: The outlook for economic growth in America isn’t good for now or in the future.

In fact, the economist say slow growth will be with us for most of the next decade.

And a depressed housing market will keep the screws on the economy.

Median home values have fallen more than 30 percent since 2005

“It will be difficult to have a robust recovery while housing and commercial real estate are depressed,” Harvard Professor and former director of the National Bureau of Economic Research said in a speech to the American Economic Association’s annual gathering of top economists from around the country.

The economists — conservative, moderate and liberal — predicted an expansion of less than 2 percent a year over the next decade.

That will lead to less spending, something needed to spur the consumer-oriented American economy.

One economist, Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, said the federal government is sustaining a false impression of economic stability because it has propped up an ailing financial system with zero-cost loans.

“There’s something of an illusion of profitability,” he told the gathering.

One Response to "Financial forecast: Doom, gloom and little growth"

  1. Carl Nemo  January 6, 2010 at 9:30 pm

    There’s terminal core rot in the scaffolding and support timbers of our national economy.

    This recent rally in the markets represents a “bull trap” in a generational bear market. The markets have rallyed 60 percent since their March lows, but are reaching serious resistance supported by decreasing volume. In a genuine bull market you’ll see ever-increasing volume supporting price increases instead we have massive divergence. This next leg down is going to knock the wind out of the sails of a lot of folks who will be terminally destroyed by their love affair with a stock market that’s supported by so much unethical criminality by the Fed~Treasury~Wall Street axis of evil.

    I’m supplying a link to a graph of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1900 to present.

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900….

    Also I’m supplying current graphs of the same index. All looks healthy when one looks at the daily chart, but when one compares it to the weekly chart you’ll see that the markets are headed for overhead resistance at the 200 week mark which doesn’t bode well for continued growth. Also study the volume of these gains and one will see the lack of increasing volume over time, but ever decreasing volume, meaning the “little fish” best watch out below as the program traders dump their positions on the slightest sense of danger and “kill them” again.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia Daily Chart

    Note: Change to Weekly view by selecting such in the box at the top and then “update” the graph.

    A third chart which represents Chaikin Moneyflow represents whether money is flowing into or out of the market. Green represents inflows while brown outflows. So while the indices are increasing the “smart money” is selling; ie., slowly moving towards the exits while the greedy  “little fish” continue to pile in with their money.  They never learn!  Investors beware…!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

    Note: Go to bottom of chart and within “Indicators” select “Chaikin Moneyflow” then “Update” the weekly chart which shows money outflows along with the decreasing volume while the indices increase in value.

    We are now in an equivalent canyon between the years 1929 and 1937. We are going to have evermore “bull trap” rallys as we ratchet ever downward into the abyss of depression along with stagflation caused by failed government policies; ie., printing fiat currency like there’s no tomorrow on the part of “Time” magazine’s man of the year Ben Bernanke and his shadowy controllers who are hell bent on maintaining the beast they created in 1913; ie., the Federal Reserve and the concept of central banking in general.

    In these times…”trust no one”…!

    Carl Nemo **==

     

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