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When in doubt, slash interest rates
ByDec 16 2008
As unemployment rises painfully higher and nest eggs are shattered, the Federal Reserve is prepared slash a key interest rate — perhaps to an all-time low — in a desperate bid to stem the country’s economic slide.
With the Fed’s key rate dropping ever closer to zero, the central bank is moving into uncharted territory.
Nonetheless, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke (right) has made it clear the Fed isn’t running out of ammunition to fight the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. It is exploring using tools — other than rate cuts — to revive the economy. New insights on that front could be revealed when Bernanke and his colleagues wrap up a two-day meeting Tuesday.
"The message is simply the Fed stands ready to do everything in its power to stop the economy’s free fall," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research.
In its battle against a recession that started last December, the Fed already has cut the target for the federal funds rate, its main tool for influencing economic activity, to 1 percent, a level seen only once before in the last half-century.
Many economists predict the Fed will cut the funds rate in half — to just 0.50 percent. A few think the Fed could opt for an even more forceful action — lowering rates by a whopping three-quarters percentage point or more. If that larger cut occurs, it would be the lowest on records that track the monthly average of the funds rate going back to 1954. The funds rate is the interest banks charge each other on overnight loans.
The benefit of another Fed rate reduction, though, may be mostly psychological, rather than economic.
"It’s a feel-good thing," said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. "Hopefully this a bridge to better confidence."
Slammed by the financial crisis, worried banks have hoarded their cash and been extremely reluctant to lend money to customers. Fearful consumers, watching jobs vanish and their investments tank, have sharply cut back their spending, including on big-ticket purchases like homes and cars that typically involve financing.
In response to the Fed’s expected action, the prime rate — now at 4 percent — for many consumer and small-business loans would drop by a corresponding amount. The prime lending rate is used to peg rates on home equity loans, certain credit cards and other consumer loans. Cheaper rates could give pinched borrowers a dose of relief.
The goal of lower borrowing costs is to entice people and businesses to spend more, which would revive the economy. So far, though, the Fed’s aggressive rate reductions have failed to stabilize the economy.
Bernanke says the Fed is weighing other ways to aid the economy given that it can lower the funds rate only so far — to zero.
For example, the Fed could buy longer-term Treasury or agency securities on the open market in substantial quantities. This might lower rates on these securities and help spur buying appetites.
A Fed program announced late last month to buy $600 billion in debt and mortgage-backed securities from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac already has helped pushed mortgage rates down.
By boosting the quantity of money in the financial system, the Fed has engaged in so-called "quantitative easing" to provide economic relief. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned to $2.2 trillion, from close to $900 billion in September, reflecting efforts to mend the financial system.
"Never in the postwar history has the Fed acted as lender of last resort to this degree," Mayland said.
In fact, with all the lending by the Fed, the actual funds rate has fallen at times well below its current 1 percent target.
As housing, credit and financial problems persist, the economic rubble mounts higher.
Shell-shocked employers axed 533,000 jobs in November alone. That drove the unemployment rate up to 6.7 percent, a 15-year high.
Since the start of the recession, the economy has shed nearly 2 million jobs. Analysts predict another 3 million more will be lost between now and the spring of 2010.
Last week alone, Bank of America Corp., tool maker Stanley Works and Sara Lee Corp., known for food brands such as Jimmy Dean and Hillshire Farm, announced job cuts.
General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, are in danger of running out of money within weeks and are seeking government aid. The White House is exploring ways to throw a lifeline to Detroit after rescue efforts collapsed in Congress.
With the employment market eroding and consumers retrenching, the economy could stagger backward at a shocking 6 percent rate in the current October-December quarter, analysts predict. It shrank at a 0.5 percent pace in the third quarter.
President-elect Barack Obama is advocating an economic recovery plan that includes spending on big public works projects to bolster jobs. His plan also includes tax cuts to spur consumers to spend more and businesses to step up investment and hiring.
Pretty soon the fed will be paying banks to borrow money – and they still won’t stop the free fall of our economy. Jobs – we the people need jobs – those things that have gone off shore. Thousands of people have lost their jobs in Nov. alone – most will loose their homes because the American way is to live paycheck to paycheck – at our great leader’s request. We have become a consumer driven economy – and we’ve removed the single thing that consumers need to consume – money thorough good paying jobs, an honest day’s wage for an honest day’s work. I feel so incredibly bad for those thousands of we the people who are without a way to make a living. My company is struggling, as is my husbands. How many millions of others?
The damn banks are not giving loans, the big inventments companies are using the borrowed cash from us to expand their size – making them even bigger and more destructive to our economy and country. They are squeezing the consumer with higher interest rates and fees, and evicting them from their homes – while we give them billions of tax payer money. Doesn’t anyone see a problem with this? Am I totally out of touch with the reality of what is going on?
And a few in their pocket republican senators have managed to stop a bailout of a major manfacturing force in our country to break one of the few surviving unions, the UAW. They would see thousands of companies fail and millions loose their jobs to achieve the agenda of these neo-cons who want to break the backs of labor. And it’s only going to get worse with the price of oil going up from production cut-backs. I hope Obama’s plan will work – but we need more. We need to hold the feet of these financial institututions to the fire – stop foreclosures for a year – or until the economy starts recovering. It is insane to keep allowing the very companies that caused this mess to dictate the recovery through their control of the financial markets. Haven’t they proved their absolute greed and utter failure to the citizens of this country and our planet? They make impossible loans, toss the customers from their homes, and cry about the results of their actions – then accept money from the very people they have cheated and abused – and continue the cycle. And our government keeps pandering to these horrible people. I admit I’m disheartened about this – as is every other normal American citizen. We need a real plan and action now – our fellow citizens need real help from our government. They need help to escape the grip of corporate terrorists who are robbing us all blind and destroying our economy. Lower interest rates to the banks isn’t going to do a damn thing for our fellow citizens who are suffering now – and the millions who are right on their heels. It’s time for a real plan – and I don’t see any on the horizon.
If you tell the truth you don’t have to remember anything.
Mark Twain
Janice, you blame the Republicans for blocking the bailout of the Big 3 dishonest Auto companies, yet it was the Democrats who shoved the bailout of the banks down the throats of the 96% of USA citizens who didn’t want it done. Where do you draw the line?!? Both parties are equally at fault for the mess the USA is in, no doubt about it.
Republicans ARE at fault and have been since the Reagan era.
The banking industry problem has been a host of lightning strikes igniting little fires here and there since the 1980’s. These little wildfires smoldered through the 1990’s, but were largely ignored by the Republicans who held legislative majorities between 1994 and 2007. Those banking industry wildfires have reignited and exploded into an enormous conflagration requiring a massive, coordinated effort to extinguish them. Republicans continue to resist efforts that do not directly benefit them. Unless their properties are directly threatened, they don’t care.
Republicans ARE responsible for the climate that lead to the banking industry failures. Just add this to the list of recent Republican losses that include, the Twin Towers, Iraq, Afghanistan, New Orleans, half the Bill of Rights and now our economy.
Screw Republicans! May they go the way of the Whigs.
I’m not happy at all about the banking bailout, and feel that was very poorly handled by both parties. I believe that they should have been allowed to fail – isn’t that what true capitalism is? With that being said, the bulk of the blame belongs to the Republicans. They have controlled Congress since 1994, and their policies are what led to the utter failure of the economy that we are now dealing with. If they were doing their job in a responsible way with common sense rather than greed, we would not be in the mess we are now. I’m not saying the Democrats are without guilt in this, but the Republicans are clearly the ones who were in control and who are responsible for this mess. And, they are the ones blocking the manfacturing bailout, and agreed with the banking one.
Personally, I see all these bailouts as the final fleecing of America by this administration and it’s corporate partners. And it makes me sick.
I’m sorry, folks but we’ve been digging our graves for a lot longer. The conservatives are certainly the worst offenders, and Reagan was a moron, if not an outright crook. But I used to have a career in manufacturing and it’s been a steady downhill slide since the ’60s. Everyone loves to romanticize the Clinton years, but Bubba was brutal to the manufacturing sector and without the dot-com boom, which was as fake as plastic surgery, his numbers would have been almost as bad as Reagan’s, at least for people who had real jobs. I was living in Seattle at the time and saw all these cocky, arrogant 20-something twerps working the bubble and thinking they had it made…. Now it’s the same for the cocky, arrogant real-estate speculators here in Touristville, Montana. You can drive by entire developments the size of small cities that are ghost-towns before they’re even occupied! But hey, karma has a funny way of humbling people.
Our one-party political system sure hasn’t helped any, but it will take a miracle to save our filthy financial system and rotten version of capitalism. If I were God, I wouldn’t waste any miracles on something so decrepit.
A spot-on indictment of the so-called “good years” under the Clintonistas DejaVuAllOver…!
People need to get it in their heads that H.W. Bush and the Clinton’s are allies and have been so since Bill’s days as governor of Arkansas. Bill, then governor was an accomplice in the Iran/Contra scandal by allowing the CIA to construct an illegal base in Mena, Arkansas which is against their charter to operate in CONUS. H.W. Bush the “kingmaker” promised great things would happen for Bill and Hill and most assuredly it has so to this point.
They are all up to their armpits in the plan to weaken the U.S. to the level of that of a minor planation in the greater global plantation controlled and operated by the corporatist NWO cabal. So far they have succeeded quite well and if we don’t pull the plug on our out of control national leadership soon, then it will be “lights out” for America…!
To them, Obama’s ascendancy is nothing but a timely distraction from their ever-unfolding agenda. Then again, he too, Obama, could have been brought onboard the Bush/Clinton Express some time back. I found it interesting that Obama waxed fondly of H.W. Bush’s skills as a leader while on the campaign trail and that he would enjoy input from the man concerning international issues etc. …!? Notice too that Obama has cozied up to Hillary post his win with her appointment to Secretary of State. He’s even kept Robert Gates on has Secretary of Defense. It’s all too much a “lovefest” as far as I’m concerned, so it will be interesting to see how this all unfolds.
Rest assured we as a nation will have to suffer more Bush/Clinton Axis meddling in national affairs before all is said and done; more than likely through Hillary Clinton. Hey, it’s simply soon to be her “turn”…! : |
Nice to see you post again. : )
Carl Nemo **==
Nothing that has been done to this point by the Fed, the Treasury, or our ever eager to legislate representatives can stop the USS America’s voyage to the bottom!
Based on their performance to this point it would have been better to let AIG, the holding company go down, Lehmann Bros which did so, and a host of other whining megabankers that like to take big risks, but when their schemes fail they want tax debtor bailout.
It’s my firm belief that the illiquidity that would have resulted would have been equal to the same that we are now experiencing except it would have been a hell of a lot cheaper in terms of future debt committment of our citizens.
So half the 700 billion has been frittered away; ie., the “good ol’ boys” losses covered, while the suffering continues on mainstreet. Truly a total waste of tax debtor dollars to this point in time and it seems they have no plans to stop this criminally inspired nonsense.
I say no more tax debtor money for failures of any kind; ie., banks, brokerage, auto manufacturers, or state and local governments!
Government at all levels needs to shrink dramatically as a function of the contraction in the private sector. We as taxpayers are laying out huge sums of tax debt, only to have our elected reps destroy us as they are doing so now; all the while telling us they are trying to help…!?
Our government fatcats want to have it “business as usual” while “we the people” get to look at the “hang-doggy” eyes of the likes of Bernanke, Levin, Paulson et al. as they wax poetically about the crisis along with their endless flawed plans to save us. They still receive their fatcat paychecks while performing in a grossly incompetent fashion relative to our collective well being as a nation.
If they want to cure liquidity then all they need to do is start a Federal National bank and let businessmen and common folks open accounts with these so-called “good guys” that want to rekindle liquidity. Instead they are handing out huge sums to spoiled, surly, intransigent banking entities that are using the money to fill in the “red ink” potholes in their portfolios while sitting smugly on their hoard of illgotten lucre courtesy to the Fed~Treasury sponsored TARP scam.
The U.S. Post Office functioned as bank during the Great Depression. I know a few oldtimers who did their banking at the U.S. Post office and they were not wiped out by banking failures that ensued along with the depression.
So there’s hundreds of U.S. Post office branches throughout the U.S.. The government needs to charter the post office to conduct banking business in a no nonsense manner.
Now were talking supreme competition; ie., the U.S. Government providing banking services juxtaposed against a legion of “paper tigers” who depend on the Fed for their “discount window”. At least these huge sums of money would be available in a pipeline that could directly help the common people without the criminal middlemen as now refusing to play ball with the current Fed~Treasury save the economy plan.
I’m sure this would cause a mighty thaw concerning the freezing of liquidity because private sector bank would have to actually compete with direct, government indeminified banking. Maybe the services wouldn’t nor shouldn’t be as elaborate as the private sector, but it would provide a modicum of services to a large portion of our nation’s banking customers.
Savers also need to be rewarded with decent, safe returns on their money. Instead, it seems that saving our national “debtor paradigm” is far more important than reestablishing a solid fiduciary link between sound banking and thrifty, responsible depositors.
To this point, the high level managers of this debt crisis seem to be as “sick” as the credit abusers, both lenders and borrowers that have gotten this once great nation into this seemingly terminal situation.
Carl Nemo **==
How is it, I ask you, that discussion on an article on interest rate slashes devolves into more conspiracy theory bullshit about Clinton and the Mena Airport within five posts?
Why don’t you guys get a room somewhere?
Yo gazelle1929,
Bill Clinton, H.W. Bush, Ollie North, Admiral Poindexter and the rest of the gang operating together during the Reagan/Bush era on the exposed Iran/Contra debacle is “fact”!
You and other seemingly well-researched “non-researchers” are welcome to prance about with buckets on your heads until the 12th of forever denying such activity.
“Why don’t you guys get a room somewhere?”…extract from your post
I’ve complimented you a number of times on your posts, but I’ve noticed over time that you’ve developed a nasty edge on many of your replies to other posters including myself. I did so to you one day, then apologized. In fact I had gone ballistic over one of these rude replies on your part.
I simply complimented DeJeVuAllOver on his post and concurred with his sentiments about the so-called “good years” under the Clintonistas. It too was another “smoke and mirrors” op while he and his wife were busy selling bed and breakfast time in the Whitehouse along with many other questionable practices while in office. The electorate seemingly has a very short memory and we see where that’s gotten us?
My personal post concerning the economic situation was on topic.
I’m beginning to realize that the “1929″ in your handle just might be your age, so I’ll forgive you for acting like a perrenial “fuddy duddy”… /:|
Carl Nemo **==
If it was felt that to let the endangered banks fail, the economy’s access to money to conduct their business would be fatally wounded, why do we let them keep the bailout bucks if they’re not lending it? I thought the reason for the bailout money was to shore up the banks so they could make loans, not buy out weaker banks at fire sale prices. If they’re not lending it, then take it away.
TARP was purposefully written to not allow this. About the only thing they could do is withhold the 2nd installment. But that whole time the Whitehouse will be claiming the sky is falling and we’ll have martial law if they don’t release the installment. At least that is what they did with the first portion.
FYI, that picture isn’t Bernanke. It’s Carl Levin, the Senator from Michigan.
You are correct woody188 in that the photo is of Carl Levin.
Needless to say I’ve never been too impressed with the guy and consider him to be a “star republicrat”.
His trademark is wearing cheap butt reading spectacles on the end of his nose while he looks ever so concerned and sad about our collective plight as citizens regardless of whatever the current “flap” might be…!?
To put it simply, he’s one uv’em… : |
Carl Nemo **==
“Bill Clinton, H.W. Bush, Ollie North, Admiral Poindexter and the rest of the gang operating together during the Reagan/Bush era on the exposed Iran/Contra debacle is “fact”!”
I disagree as to Clinton. There is nothing factual to indicate that Clinton was in bed with that gang. There is a lot of BS out there and a lot of conspiracy theory, but there are no facts. I do research, I am not stupid, and I am not going to be led blindly to a belief that is not supported by facts. And I refuse to accept conspiracy theory as fact just because of circular references.
Hi gazelle1929…
Acquire a copy of: The Bigger Story behind Whitewater
COMPROMISED:
Clinton, Bush and the CIA
“How the Presidency was Co-opted by the CIA”
by Terry Reed and John Cummings a 1994 release by S.P.I. Books, a division of Shapolsky Publishers. Available on Amazon.
It’s a 543 page tome that should set an intelligent reader such as yourself on ear as to just how corrupt H.W. Bush, Clinton and our now CIA in charge just might be!
We as citizens are now living in a CIA orchestrated “Matrix”
like the movie.
The MSM totally dissed the book and the powers that be made sure it was quashed. When Bill Clinton has been asked about his involvement with the CIA; ie., the Mena base etc., he simply turns “chalk white” and refuses to answer on the subject either affirmative or negative. It’s as if he’s a deer caught in the headlights of a truck…!
I really urge you to get a copy because I like both you and your posts regardless of our differences. The truth shall set you free! : ) There are many other references to pursue.
It’ my firm belief that both Bill and Hill are either in the employ of the CIA or are assets and have been so since his days as governor of Arkansas.
Carl Nemo **==
Thanks for the enlightenment folks.
I am beginning to see that things will not be getting better until “we the people” take our government and economy back by force. By this I mean we begin over. Make a barter economy ourselves sharing and trading time, no longer using dollars, and starve the fat-cats out. I think we were here in the early seventies with many communities creating their own script for use in exchanging goods and services, and creating their own economies.
I have long wondered about what I was taught about the “commies” during the sixties in public school. Were they really explaining what they were planing and doing themselves?