With 27 days left, the Obama lead is firming up…

…and the McCain attack is getting personal, desperate and as far from discussing the economy as the old man can get. Sitting in my comfy chair and watching the Sunday morning political shows… clicker in my hand… and touring the campaign oriented web-sites from both sides, I’m getting a little more confident that we might have a real change in Washington.

In Open Left yesterday, "tremayne" posted this:

Just when you think the bump or bounce or whatever is over, the lead grows again. That’s what makes me think it’s not a bounce at all but leaners and undecided voters coalescing around the Democratic ticket. Here’s what the tracking poll average (Gallup, Rasmussen, Hotline, R2Kos) shows for the last 10 days:

That total of polls puts Obama over 50% for the first time… a lead that all analysts seem to think is necessary to win (and remember, in 3-way races Bill Clinton did not achieve an over 50% score). The Princeton Electoral Consortium thinks a landslide toward Obama could be in the making. Their current Electoral Vote outcome distribution projection is Obama: 348, McCain: 190, with a Meta-margin of Obama +3.94%. Given these projections, the McCain campaign is about to go on as heavy an attack on Obama’s personality and career as a "liberal extremist" as is possible… and avoid mentioning the economy, which McCain’s deregulation career was obviously part of the cause of the current disaster. As Mike Murphy, Republican strategist, said on Meet The Press this morning: "It is McCain’s barn that is on fire… his trend line is very, very bad." Obama is apparently gearing up against that sort of attack and is already releasing ads that refuse to let McCain detach himself from the economy. In a just released ad, this is how Obama structures the situation:

Three quarters of a million jobs lost this year. Our financial system in turmoil. And John McCain? Erratic in a crisis. Out of touch on the economy. No wonder his campaign wants to change the subject.

While McCain and Palin are trying to push the connection of Obama to William Ayers and Tony Rezko, connections which have been debunked already. The "guilt by association path," as Paul Begala pointed out, also on Meet the press, "will backfire… this thing will blow up in (McCain’s) face." There’s not a lot of time left. Obama is pushing to get folks to the polls in the "early voting" states (West Virginia is one, and I’ll certainly be voting early) with a well turned out organization nationwide. McCain is still trying to regain control of his campaign. Letting the world focus on Sarah Palin the last couple of weeks was a mistake that will take a lot of time to get away from. The next few weeks will be test. Under The LobsterScope