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The congressional page sex scandal could have a decisive effect on several key political campaigns across the country and prove crucial to Democratic hopes of gaining control of the House of Representatives in November.
Polls indicate that the scandal, triggered by the publication of sexually explicit messages that former Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley sent to ex-pages, hasn’t created a voter backlash against Republicans nationally.
But in four House districts currently held by Republicans the issue could prove decisive, political analysts said, because of the candidates’ connections to Foley or to child protection issues:
In more than a dozen other races around the nation, Democrats are trying to put Republicans on the defensive over the issue, although the links are weaker. They include competitive Republican-held seats in Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania and Connecticut.
Democratic and Republican strategists say the scandal also could help Democrats by discouraging social conservatives, who usually vote Republican, from going to the polls. That could be especially damaging in heartland states such as Indiana and Kentucky. The scandal also might encourage independent voters to cast ballots for Democrats in an effort to change the status quo, both camps’ strategists said.
“You’re not going to win running on Mark Foley,” Republican strategist Brian Nienaber said of Democratic challengers criticizing Republicans in most races. “But you could win on Mark Foley being a piece of ‘You’ve been in power for too long.’ ”
In Minnesota, the Republican candidate, Michele Bachmann, a social conservative, had the apparent edge in the race to replace Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, who’s running for the Senate. But four days after the scandal broke, the Democrat, Patty Wetterling, rushed out a television ad calling for a criminal investigation of Foley and the expulsion of any member of Congress who knew he might be preying on underage pages but didn’t speak up.
Democrats now think that Wetterling, who’s already well known on children’s issues because of her son’s abduction, has the momentum, and they tapped her to deliver this week’s response to President Bush’s weekly radio address.
Political scientist Steven Smith said the Foley scandal had given Wetterling “about as fat a pitch down the middle of the plate as you can get in politics.”
In Foley’s Florida district, many Republican strategists think they have little hope of hanging onto the seat. The Republicans have designated a candidate, Joe Negron, to run in Foley’s place, but there’s little time for him to campaign.
And people who wish to support Negron must vote for Foley, whose name will remain on the ballot. Republicans fear that few people will be willing to do that.
In New York, Reynolds learned months ago that the parents of one former page were concerned about an overly friendly e-mail that Foley had sent their son in 2005. Reynolds discussed the matter with House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., but they didn’t inform Democrats or agitate for a thorough investigation.
Reynolds also had other ties to Foley. His chief of staff, Kirk Fordham, previously had been Foley’s chief of staff. Fordham resigned from Reynolds’ staff this week after he was accused of trying to shield Foley when the scandal broke. But he added to the controversy by charging that he’d tried to warn Hastert’s staff of concerns years ago.
A poll last week by the Buffalo, N.Y., television station WGRZ showed Reynolds in a statistical tie with his Democratic opponent, and analysts say the Foley case is affecting his campaign.
In New Mexico, Wilson’s re-election race already was competitive. But since the scandal broke, her Democratic challenger, New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, has issued almost daily news releases accusing Wilson of complicity in a “cover-up.”
Wilson was a member of the House Page Board from 2001 to 2004. That covers a period when Foley was apparently trading sexually explicit instant messages with at least one former page, though no evidence has come to light that Wilson knew of the e-mails.
The issue is a subject of daily attention in New Mexico, where Madrid is touting her record of combating online sexual predators. Polls show that what had been a dead heat before the Foley scandal has tipped in Madrid’s favor.
Democrats, who need to gain 15 seats to take control of the House, also hope the Foley scandal will have an effect on close races in which other issues seem to be driving voters.
A Pew Research Center poll last week said the war in Iraq remained the central issue in voters’ minds heading into the Nov. 7 elections.
“The Foley story has not significantly affected the midterm race,” director Andrew Kohut said.
But Pew polls also show that white evangelical Protestants’ preference for Republicans over Democrats in congressional races has slipped; it was 64 percent to 27 percent in 2002, but now is 57 percent to 31 percent. That may be enough of a drop to affect close races, analysts said.
In one Kentucky race, Democratic challenger Ken Lucas’ campaign manager, Jim Creevy, said voters had barraged the campaign to express outrage over the Foley scandal. The incumbent, Rep. Geoff Davis, said it “has not been a dominant subject” among his supporters.
Michael Baranowski, associate professor of political science at Northern Kentucky University, said the Foley scandal is likely to have only a “very indirect and minor” role in the conservative district that stretches along the Ohio River to the West Virginia border.
Nevertheless, he cautioned, “Very minor things have a way of adding up in a race like this.”