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April 18, 2008 - 7:15am.
![]() Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (AP) In a dramatic reversal, an Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll found that a clear majority of Democratic voters now say Sen. Barack Obama has a better chance of defeating Republican Sen. John McCain in November than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. While Obama and Clinton are both sustaining dents and dings from their lengthy presidential fight, the former first lady is clearly suffering more. Democratic voters no longer see her as the party's strongest contender for the White House. Voters of all types have gotten a better sense of Obama, who was an obscure Illinois legislator just four years ago. As more people moved from the "I don't know him" category in the AP-Yahoo! News poll, more rated Obama as inexperienced, unethical and dishonest. And 15 percent erroneously think he's a Muslim, thanks in part to disinformation widely spread on the Internet. But Obama's positive ratings have climbed as well, while Clinton — widely known since the early 1990s — has been less able to change people's views of her. And when those views have shifted, it has hurt her more than helped. The New York senator's ratings for being honest, likable, ethical and refreshing have fallen since January, and Obama scores higher than she does in all those categories. In late January, before Obama scored 11 straight primary and caucus victories, 56 percent of Democrats saw Clinton as the stronger nominee, compared to 33 percent for Obama. Now, Obama leads on that question, 56 to 43 percent. Still, the poll, conducted by Knowledge Networks, contains some worrisome signs for the first-term senator. Those rating him as "not at all honest," for example, jumped from 18 percent last fall to 27 percent in April. It came as he was put on the defensive over incendiary comments by his former pastor. But many holding such views are Republicans or conservative independents, who would be unlikely to vote in a Democratic primary or support a Democrat in the fall, anyway. The most encouraging sign for Obama is that many Democrats who previously saw Clinton as their party's best hope now give him that role. About one-third of them still prefer Clinton, but they have lost confidence in her electability. "I would love to vote for Hillary," said Nancy Costello of Bellevue, Ky., one of the more than 1,800 randomly selected adults whose opinions are rechecked every few months. "I'm 67, and I'll probably never get another chance to vote for a woman." But Obama now appears to be the stronger candidate, she said, and electing a Democrat in November is paramount. If McCain wins and continues many of President Bush's economic and foreign policies, Costello said, "I think I would just sit down and cry." By tracking the same group throughout the campaign, the AP-Yahoo! News poll can gauge how individual views change. It suggests that Clinton has paid a price for hammering Obama since early February on several issues as she tries to overcome his lead in delegates and the popular vote. Among those Democrats who no longer consider her the more electable of the two, most now see her as less likable, decisive, strong, honest, experienced and ethical than they did in January. Meanwhile, those same voters are more likely to see Obama as strong, honest and refreshing than before. Beulah Barton of Leesburg, Fla., said she initially backed Clinton, partly because she liked Bill Clinton's record as president. "But the more I hear her talk, and the more I hear him talk, the more put off I am," said Barton, 69. "I think she's brash, I think she's rude. I get the feeling that she feels she deserves to be president" and doesn't need "to earn it." Barton said she likes Obama, and ignores e-mails suggesting that he refuses to salute the flag or is somehow threatening "because of his name." "People try to make him look like a traitor," she said. "I think he has risen above most of that stuff." Some misinformation sticks, however. The great majority of the poll's participants said this month they did not know the religious affiliation of Clinton (a Methodist) or Obama (United Church of Christ). But 15 percent ventured that Obama, whose father was Kenyan, is a Muslim. That group includes more Democrats than Republicans, and it doesn't necessarily worry them. Randi Estes, a Democrat from Ada, Okla., said she prefers Clinton but feels Obama is likely to win the nomination. "He's gotten very strong media coverage, and Bill Clinton's not helping her a bit," said Estes, 36, who has four children under the age of 6. Speaking of Obama, she said, "I have a sense he's a Muslim." If Obama wins the nomination, the poll indicates he will need to mend his image a bit as he battles McCain for independents and soft Republicans. His favorability rating among all voters has declined, with those ranking him as "very unfavorable" growing from 17 percent in January to 25 percent in April. Most of them are Republicans and independents. In January, 30 percent of Republicans rated Obama very unfavorably. That grew to 43 percent in April. Among the coveted independents, 12 percent had a very unfavorable view of Obama in January. That has nearly doubled to 23 percent. Obama would be the first black president, and the survey detected some evidence of racial discomfort in voters' minds. It found that about 8 percent of whites would be uncomfortable voting for a black for president. It produced an estimate of about 13 percent of Republicans who would feel that way, but suggested very few if any Democrats would now be uncomfortable. In November, about 5 percent of Democrats indicated discomfort at voting for a black person for president. For Allen Lovell, a moderate Democrat in Everett, Wash., race is unimportant, but replacing Bush with a Democrat is vital. And lately he has concluded that Obama probably has the better chance of beating McCain. "I am leaning towards him, not because he's black — because I'm white — but because we definitely need a change," said Lovell, 50. He said the Democratic campaign has lasted too long, but there is one topic he'd like to hear more about. Lovell, who guessed that Obama is "either Christian or Muslim," said: "I don't think we're getting enough information on religion" from the candidates. The survey of 1,844 adults was conducted April 2-14 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Included were interviews with 863 Democrats, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.3 points, and 668 Republicans, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 points. The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks. It initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods, and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it for free. (AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.) Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press
Capitol Hill Blue's columnists, blogs and reader comments Capitol Hill Blue is an independent, non-partisan news site that belongs to no political party and subscribes to no political or philosophical point-of-view. Our columnists are welcome to their opinions but readers should understand that their views do not necessarily reflect the editorial policies of this web site. We also welcome comments to selected opinion columns and in our popular ReaderRant discussion forum. Please remember, however, that we believe in civility on this web site and comments may be reviewed, moderated or removed if we feel they contain obscenities, racism, bigotry, anti-Semitic remarks or attack other posters. Our goal is reasoned discussion on issues facing this nation and we do not feel that goal is served by personal attacks and by seeing how many cute adjectives you can attach to an elected official or politician's name. Copyright © 2008 Capitol Hill Blue
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Will Peter Paul be the
Submitted by Stratocaster on April 18, 2008 - 8:35am.Will Peter Paul be the person that finally drives a wooden stake through Hillary's heart? I happened across this link the other day and I don't recall seeing any media coverage of it.
http://www.peterfpaul.com/
Not if the MSM can help it
Submitted by bryan mcclellan on April 18, 2008 - 8:42am.Not if the MSM can help it Strato. Have you picked up on the you tube version of the story? Damning evidence if ever there was in my book.
I started with the you-tube
Submitted by Stratocaster on April 18, 2008 - 9:06am.I started with the you-tube version but was having problems with the download so I pursued it elsewhere.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq8aopATYyw&feature...
It appears to be ironclad
Submitted by bryan mcclellan on April 18, 2008 - 9:27am.It appears to be ironclad evidence of a crime, No? Not to mention his incarceration which really amps up the noise. Would not a poll conducted about this be viable and news worthy? Funny thing about these polls,I've never been contacted to contribute.Have you?
There are more than a few
Submitted by Wayne K Dolik on April 18, 2008 - 10:03am.There are more than a few errors in this discourse if you chose to call it that.
1. Barak is not an Muslim, that is unless you chose to violate the United States Constitution, which declares there should be “no corruption of blood”, which means you can not make sons guilty for there fathers or mothers.
2. The Internet blames Obama for being a Muslim? I think not, try Fox Noise on that allegation. Get a life about the Internet. It’s the only free speech place left in America; Like CHB!
Perhaps the voters of New
Submitted by fritzer on April 18, 2008 - 11:30am.Perhaps the voters of New York state will reassess their previous votes and oust that woman from office. It is overdue.
I'm so sick and tired of all
Submitted by spartacus on April 18, 2008 - 12:40pm.I'm so sick and tired of all the stuff about Obama being a Muslim. It makes absolutely NO SENSE in light of the flack over the ramblings of his CHRISTIAN PASTOR Jeremiah Wright. His father was NOT a part of his upbringing; he was raised by his CHRISTIAN MOTHER AND GRANDPARENTS!!!! The whole thing is silly!
While Stephanopoulos and Gibson were doing their hatchet jobs during that last 'debate', why didn't they ask that question, since the first 'issues' they raised were the nonissues about acquaintances and other things that DO NOT CONCERN THE RUNNING OF THIS COUNTRY? I'll tell you why: because on national tv, in front of an extremely large audience for a debate before an important primary, they would have asked a question and gotten a REAL ANSWER - THAT HE IS NOT A MUSLIM - and ended all the speculation, inuendos, and chances for misunderstanding still out there. There would have been no more chance for rumors, swiftboating, or any other efforts to paint him as something he isn't: and cost him votes in the process. If those jokers were really asking questions about 'issues' he'd face during the general election, then that one should have been front and center, unless they still wanted it out there to help Hillary gain some votes among the more uninformed voters still out there. Rev. Wright and the Weather Underground won't last; his father, the Muslim, is a tie that lasts forever. They just didn't want an honest answer to the most obvious of questions, and the one which won't go away.
Nevertheless, Obama WILL be our next president!
Spartacus...Thank you for
Submitted by Sheep on April 18, 2008 - 5:01pm.Spartacus...Thank you for your posting. Hopefully some of the small minds from small town America will finally educate themselves and stop letting FALSE NEWS NETWORK, RUSH WINDBAG AND DUMB HANNITY tell them how to think.
Obama 08'
At this point, anybody who
Submitted by pondering_it_all on April 19, 2008 - 2:20am.At this point, anybody who is "concerned that Obama is a Muslim" should just admit to themselves and anybody who asks that they are racists and the religion of his father has nothing to do with it. This is just simple fear of "The Other": A candidate who has some African genes.
Well here's a bit of news for all those racists who believe the old dogma that "any fraction of African genes makes you a Negro". EVERY SINGLE HUMAN BEING ON EARTH has 100% African genes!
Hah Hah Hah Hah!!! Screw
Submitted by Klaus Hergeschimmer on April 19, 2008 - 4:03am.Hah Hah Hah Hah!!! Screw both of those Lexus Liberals! They both take massive infusions of cash from the Health Care INDUSTRY. When their on their death beds, they'll be getting their keesters wiped and licked by Paris Hilton Caregivers until the end while us ordinary folks will die agonizing deaths in a stinking putrid nursing 'home'.
Godam@#$@ Lexus Liberals
Submitted by Klaus Hergeschimmer on April 19, 2008 - 4:00am.Godam@#$@ Lexus Liberals
I received this commentary
Submitted by Sandra Price on April 19, 2008 - 11:15am.I received this commentary this morning and I think this is the place to share it.
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2008/041908a.html
Saying one of these
Submitted by yarply on April 19, 2008 - 9:00pm.Saying one of these candidates is more electable than the other is like saying one turd smells better than another.
So we have three turds running for office. I guess we pick the one that doesn't stink the most.